Bitcoin is testing the bottom of a shorter-term symmetrical triangle inside a falling wedge visible on the daily time frame. A break below the triangle support could pave the way for a move to the wedge bottom just above the $5,000 mark.
The 100 SMA is below the longer-term 200 SMA to signal that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, support is more likely to break than to hold. Note that the triangle spans $5,800 to around $8,000 so the resulting slide could be of the same height, effectively taking Bitcoin below the wedge bottom as well.
RSI is pointing down to show that there’s some selling pressure left before oversold conditions are seen. Stochastic appears to be making its way out of the oversold region but might be changing its mind and heading back down to show that sellers have the upper hand.
There seem to be no major catalysts tied to the sharp drop, possibly with the exception of the announcement of another round of tariffs from the US to China. Around $200 billion worth of goods are targeted in the latest batch, which would be the biggest to date, and Trump has threatened to go for an additional $267 billion if China retaliates.
With that, traders probably cashed in on their riskier holdings in pursuit of safe-haven assets like gold. Also keep in mind that Bitcoin traders are uneasy ahead of the SEC ruling on bitcoin ETF applications, as the regulator’s recent actions suggest that rejection may be in order.
Breaks of technical levels might convince even more bitcoin holders to cash out, therefore exacerbating the drop. It would take a significantly strong positive catalyst to stem these declines, and it looks like small updates on institutional interest or progress in other altcoins haven’t been enough.
Images courtesy of TradingView