Key Insights:
- Bitcoin’s classic cycle theory might be “dead”, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
- The analyst says that institutional investors now dominate the market and have replaced retail-driven hype with strategic accumulation.
- Predicting risk has become more difficult, as mainstream bear market signals no longer apply.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, has just declared that Bitcoin’s classic market cycle theory might be dead. He made this statement amidst an ongoing Bitcoin price correction across the market, as institutional investors seem to be holding the steering wheel.
This change, he says, is so strong that it renders earlier predictive models based on retail sentiment and whale distribution obsolete.
Here’s why Bitcoin’s behavior is changing, and what it means for investors going forward.
The End of the Bitcoin Cycle Era
Historically, the Bitcoin cycle theory has always rested on two pillars. Firstly, buy when whales accumulate. Secondly, sell when retail investors rush in.
This pattern of accumulation and distribution has defined Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets strongly in the past. In essence, large holders (whales) were seen as smart money who bought early, while retail investors were often late to the party and bought at the top. This cohort of investors tended to panic sell during corrections, and further drive prices down.
However, Ki Young Ju now admits that this model is no longer true. He pointed out that his recent bearish prediction, which he made in March, was based on this outdated framework.
#Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.
My predictions were based on it—buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail joins. But that pattern no longer holds.
Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we…
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 24, 2025
From Retail Mania to Institutional Strategy
Ju pointed out a major change: old whales are no longer selling to retail investors. Instead, they are selling to new long-term whales, which are often institutional players. This change has reshaped the playbook of the entire crypto market.
According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the number of holders, or those accumulating and holding for the long term, has now beaten the number of active traders.
Over the last two years, retail Bitcoin ownership has declined steadily, while large entities like ETFs, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries have stepped in to accumulate BTC.
In the words of analyst Burakkesmeci: “This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021. There is no mass euphoria, nor is social media overflowing. Quiet and smart money is currently on stage, and most people are still watching from the sidelines.”
This kind of sentiment, despite Bitcoin’s highs earlier this month, is very different from earlier retail-led frenzies. As a result, the market is more mature and data-driven than ever before.
Why Predicting the Next Bear Market Is Now Harder
One of the most interesting implications of this change is the difficulty in predicting bear markets.
In the past, market tops were often triggered by retail panic. Social media buzz, over-leveraged positions, and emotional decision-making created easy-to-read signals. Now, however, those cues have gone silent.
The current market is driven by institutions that operate with longer time horizons. These entities have more discipline and are more strategic with their setups.
So, What Does a Bear Market Look Like in This New Era?
Ju posed the same question. He also warned that if institutional sentiment turns sour, the results could be hard and sharp. Worse, they could be harder to detect in advance.
This stands as a whole new challenge for traders, analysts, and even risk managers. Without the well-known signals, calculating when to enter or even exit the market may require analysts to scrap their old indicators and create new ones.
