Analysts say 2026 altcoin RSI matches past cycle lows seen in 2015, 2018 and 2022, as sentiment turns bearish again.
Crypto market sentiment in 2026 remains cautious, yet some analysts argue that the current phase resembles prior accumulation periods.
They point to repeating cycle behavior, technical indicators, and historical sentiment shifts that appeared before earlier altcoin rallies.
Past Market Cycles Show Similar Sentiment Extremes
During previous downturns, many market participants declared that altcoins were finished.
In 2015, 2018, and 2022, similar claims circulated widely across trading communities and social platforms.
2026: THE YEAR OF ACCUMULATION
Ironically, for most, it will be the year of capitulation.
2015: "Altcoins = dead and will never come back."
2018: "Altcoins = dead and will never come back."
2022: "Altcoins = dead and will never come back."
2026: "Altcoins = dead… pic.twitter.com/vgQbVrPHiy— P A R A B O L I C (@ParabolicXBT) February 17, 2026
Each of those years followed a strong bull cycle and was marked by sharp corrections. Liquidity declined, trading volumes fell, and retail participation slowed.
Confidence weakened, and many investors exited positions at losses.
However, historical data shows that each of those periods eventually transitioned into renewed expansion phases.
Altcoins later recorded broad recoveries as liquidity improved and risk appetite returned to the market.
Technical Indicators Mirror Prior Bottom Signals
Several analysts now reference the OTHERS index, which tracks the total altcoin market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.
They state that the Relative Strength Index for this index has returned to levels seen near prior cycle lows.
In previous cycles, similar RSI readings occurred before sustained recoveries. Traders use RSI to measure whether assets appear oversold or overbought based on recent price momentum.
When RSI approaches historical bottom zones, some technical analysts interpret this as reduced selling pressure.
They argue that compressed volatility and weak sentiment often align near market inflection points.
Accumulation Narrative Versus Capitulation Risk
Despite accumulation arguments, some market participants caution that downturns can persist longer than expected.
Capitulation phases often include extended consolidation before a durable uptrend begins.
Commentary within crypto markets suggests fear has historically limited participation near lows.
Observers note that disbelief and pessimism were common before earlier altcoin expansions.
Broader factors such as liquidity conditions, macroeconomic trends, and regulatory developments continue to influence digital asset prices.
Whether 2026 becomes a large-scale accumulation year or extends the corrective phase will depend on how these forces evolve in the coming months.
