Bitcoin’s next major move may depend on whether the 200W EMA holds or fails on weekly closes.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin exchanged hands around $68,344 after shedding its value once again in the previous trading session. This comes as the OG coin continues a southbound movement, which has seen it fall below levels last seen in 2024. And as expected, this volatility has triggered fragile sentiment among market participants.
Third Test of 200W EMA Puts Bitcoin at Critical Crossroads
Amid this volatility, analyst Dami-Defi has drawn attention to Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (200W EMA). For context, the 200W EMA tracks the average price of an asset over the past 200 weeks.
Dami-Defi explained that every historical touch of that line has marked a major cycle opportunity. According to him, $60,000 may later appear “obviously cheap” if support holds again.
Image Source: X/Dami-Defi
As of now, the 200W EMA sits in the high-$60,000 region. During the 2020 and 2023 cycles, price pulled back to that level before forming bases that lasted several months. Afterwards, it rallied to new highs. Buyers entered near the average and weekly closes stayed above it, showing support instead of a breakdown.
Referencing a BTC technical chart, the market commentator noted that:
- A weekly close above the 200W EMA shows buyers are defending long-term support.
- Higher lows may signal a base forming near major demand.
- Sustained closes below the average suggest deeper downside risk.
- Volatility may remain high as both sides test strength near that level.
Price action to date indicates compression rather than impulsive selling through the level. Demand has appeared near the EMA, preventing a clean breakdown. A third defense of that area is now underway, following two prior cycle reactions.
Analyst Sees Upside Toward $110K but Warns of Breakdown Risk
If support remains intact, Dami-Defi sees potential for a move back into prior range highs. He cites $95,000 to $110,000 as a potential magnet zone if momentum rebounds. Such a move would require steady weekly closes above the 200W EMA.
Even then, the analyst identified potential risks that could follow if support fails. He mentioned that sustained weekly closes below the 200-week EMA would mean structural weakness. Acceptance beneath that level could open the door to deeper downside toward broader macro support zones.
For now, Dami-Defi maintains a constructive stance as bias leans toward stabilization rather than breakdown. However, weekly candles defend the 200-week EMA. The firstborn coin’s market direction may now be determined by how price behaves around that long-term cycle floor.
