Bitcoin’s bull market is now facing a test as trader Roman warns that losing the $100K support could end the rally.
The Bitcoin bull market could face its biggest test yet soon. Popular trader Roman has warned that if Bitcoin falls below $100,000, the current bull run may be over.
His analysis indicates that holding the six-figure support is important for keeping hopes alive.
Bitcoin has already pulled back from its $125,000 peak. At one point, the price dipped 15%, and created worries among traders. Roman noted that Bitcoin lost its $112,000 support and broke below its uptrend.
He now points to $98,000 to $100,000 as the must-hold zone.
“If we lose that,” he said, “it officially confirms the bull run being over.”
Technical Signals Clash Over Market Direction
The debate over Bitcoin’s next move is centred around technical signals. Roman pointed out investor exhaustion on higher timeframes, including weak volume near the highs and bearish divergences on the relative strength index (RSI).
These signs tend to indicate that traction is slowing down and that a correction could be inbound.
$BTC 1D
Definitely looks ugly as we’ve lost our uptrend and 112k support.
98-100k is the level to watch. We lose that and *officially* confirms the bull run being over.
HTF still showing lots of exhaustion shown in my previous posts. pic.twitter.com/5C4GFB690w
— Roman (@Roman_Trading) August 31, 2025
However, the shorter-term charts tell a different story. The four-hour RSI data, for example, shows bullish divergences. These can signal a rebound before the general market turns.
So far, traders are watching to see if these signals develop into a more sustainable uptrend.
Different Views on Buying Opportunities
Not all traders see the current pullback as a warning. Some consider $100,000 a great entry point for accumulation.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, for example, acknowledged that Bitcoin is not in a short-term uptrend. He, however, sees opportunity at lower levels. “I’m targeting the area around $102,000 to $104,000 for support,” he said. “This is the best period to accumulate your positions.”
It's quite clear that we're, in the short term, not in an uptrend on #Bitcoin.
I'm targeting the area around $102-104K for support.
I still think that this is the best period to accumulate your positions on. pic.twitter.com/xbKHGDIx4Z
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 31, 2025
Another trader, ZYN, is also optimistic. He argued that if the $100,000 level holds, Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs within four to six weeks. He pointed to a bullish RSI structure as the basis for this outlook and stated, “That’s not hope. That’s structure.”
On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Momentum
Beyond charts, on-chain indicators are also worth looking at. Analysts have flagged Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the market price to the average cost basis of holders.
Recently, the metric formed a bearish “death cross,” which is a signal for weaker momentum.
A recent death cross in the Bitcoin $BTC MVRV Momentum indicator signals a macro momentum reversal from positive to negative. pic.twitter.com/m0FCqOMD3v
— Ali (@ali_charts) August 27, 2025
The last time this occurred was in the last bear market, just before Bitcoin dropped more than 70%. Some analysts now believe that history could rhyme and price targets as low as $60,000 could come into play if a full reversal unfolds.
The Road Ahead for Bitcoin Investors
The next few weeks will be important for Bitcoin. Holding above $100,000 could refresh the confidence and attract new buyers. A breakdown below that level, however, could risk shifting the market into a bearish phase.
Investors and traders must consider the conflicting signals. Technical charts show both exhaustion and recovery. On-chain data, on the other hand, shows weakening inflows but also shows Bitcoin far from overheated.
Some see the $100,000 level as a threat. Others see it as an opportunity to strengthen positions before the next leg higher.
