Bitcoin long-term holders see adjusted MVRV compress into reset territory while NUPL turns neutral, CryptoQuant data shows, as old coins simply refuse to move.
The paper profits are mostly gone. Bitcoin long-term holders in the 6M to 10Y cohort have watched their adjusted MVRV compress into territory that marked valuation resets in every cycle since 2015, per a CryptoQuant Quicktake published this week. Not distribution. Resets.
The 2017 and 2021 peaks looked nothing like this. Back then the metric ripped into the Extreme Profit zone while experienced wallets sold into strength. The current reading sits far below that band, and price is still historically elevated.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder adjusted MVRV, 6M to 10Y cohort. Source: CryptoQuant
The Selling That Refuses to Show Up
Whales in the 100 to 1,000 BTC bracket dumped 67,000 coins on July 13 and exchange inflows barely reacted. Different cohort, different mood. The oldest money is doing something else entirely.
Realized price for the 6M to 10Y group keeps climbing. Long-term capital is repricing its own cost basis upward, that is to say the average entry for old coins keeps rising, while spot trades near $62,600. That divergence points to a correction driven by price retracement rather than capitulation from conviction holders, per the Quicktake.
Mature wallets could have distributed months ago. They apparently decided the exit was not worth taking.
NUPL Went Quiet and Nobody Noticed
A second CryptoQuant analysis tracks Adjusted NUPL, and the aggregate reading has slid toward the neutral line. Unrealized profits across the network compressed hard after the correction. Euphoria left the building without slamming the door.
Bitcoin Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Source: CryptoQuant
Long-term holders still sit comfortably positive on that measure. Their profitability weakened, sure, but it stays well above the stress zones that defined deep-cycle bottoms. Past transitions like this one read as a reset in expectations rather than the opening act of a long bear phase.
Bitcoin LTH Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Source: CryptoQuant
Short-term holders tell the uglier half of the story. Their reading keeps oscillating around zero after stretches underwater, so newer buyers flip between thin gains and losses. Sentiment selling from that group will probably stay elevated until sustained upside restores some confidence, the analysis noted.
Bitcoin STH Adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Source: CryptoQuant
Supply Is the Quiet Problem Here
Constrained coins now face hesitant cash. The Bitcoin reserve ratio on Binance just hit a record low while roughly $43B in stablecoins sits idle on the exchange. Whether fresh demand absorbs what little floats free is the entire question from here.
Every major drawdown since 2015 pushed the long-term holder metric into similar ground before patient demand slowly soaked up available supply. That 2017 comparison from earlier exists for a reason. CryptoQuant stopped short of calling an immediate reversal, and the data does not force one.
The broader Bitcoin market gets its answer from whichever side blinks first. The realized cost basis for old coins ticked higher again this week. Per the data, anyway.
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