As we predicted during our latest weekly analysis, bitcoin price surged during the past few days to reach $2640 on Bitfinex last Sunday. With bitcoin’s scaling debate heating up, it is rather hard to predict where bitcoin price will be heading during the next few weeks. According to its Github’s repository page, SegWit2x is scheduled to start running its nodes and begin signaling on July 21. On the other hand, BIP148, another scalability solution, will be launched on August 1. Add to this the possibility of activation of a user activated soft fork (UASF) that can split bitcoin’s blockchain into two separate chains.
So, where can we expect bitcoin price to be during the upcoming few days?
Williams Alligator Signaling Bullish Advancement on the 4 Hour BTCUSD Chart:
Let’s examine the 4 hour BTCUSD chart from Bitfinex, while keeping the Fibonacci retracements and Gann angle placements we plotted during an earlier analysis and executing the Williams Alligator indicator (look at the below chart). We can note the following:
- Bitcoin price started rising after testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($2262.62), which supported price quite well preventing further drop. A bullish engulfing pattern was formed (the 2 candlesticks highlighted by an ellipse on the below chart) that signaled reversal of the bearish wave that has been controlling the market since July 11.
- As we explained during our previous analysis, an Elliott 5 wave formation is currently being completed on the 4 hour BTCUSD chart and is expected to take bitcoin price to a level higher than the high recorded at the climax of the 3rd Elliott wave ($3000), yet this level won’t probably be reached before the 1st of July, as price will mostly move below the 1 x 2 Gann angle, where the market would be relatively stable, so the rate of rise will be relatively lower than the rate of rise throughout the 3rd Elliott wave.
- The smoothed moving averages SMAs of the Williams Alligator indicator (highlighted by an ellipse on the below chart) currently exhibit a bullish signal as the red SMA is above the blue SMA and the green SMA is above both. This represents another signal that confirms an upcoming bullish rally.
- As bitcoin price rises, we can expect to see a price correction attempt as the 0% Fib retracement level, which corresponds to $2691.71, is approached.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin price started rising again after testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. As per our technical analysis, we expect bitcoin price to exceed the $3000 price mark by the end of the month. Along the way, we can expect a price correction attempt around the $2691.71 price level.
Chart from Bitfinex, hosted on Tradingview.com