Bitcoin market pressure eases as STH SOPR approaches neutral, exchange outflows persist, and futures leverage declines.
Bitcoin has traded in a consolidation range for several months after retreating from highs near $110,000. Price volatility has slowed, yet several on-chain signals point to gradual changes in market behavior. Activity among short-term holders provides one of the clearest views of shifting sentiment. Recent data suggests selling pressure tied to losses may be easing as the market stabilizes.
STH SOPR Moves Closer to Neutral After Months of Loss Selling
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has been rising since February. Some short-term investors appear to have increased exposure during the recent consolidation phase.
With this consolidation now lasting several months, some STHs seem to have taken the opportunity to increase their exposure.
As a result, their SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has been trending upward since February 📈
To capture the underlying trend, a 1 month average is… pic.twitter.com/xshJ3LBl83
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 11, 2026
The STH SOPR compares the price at which coins were acquired with the price at which they were spent. Readings above 1.0 indicate coins are sold at a profit. Values below that level mean investors are realizing losses.
To capture the broader trend, Darkfost tracks a 30-day moving average of the STH SOPR. That average has climbed from 0.977 to 0.987 in recent months. As a result, short-term investors are recording smaller losses when they sell.
Gradual improvement in the metric suggests the cost basis of newer market participants is slowly rising. At the same time, daily readings show the STH SOPR approaching the neutral 1.0 threshold again. Market behavior often shifts when the indicator returns to that level.
Despite the recent improvement, the indicator has remained below 1.0 for much of the past year. Darkfost notes that the metric has stayed mostly negative since October. During that period, many short-term investors sold coins at a loss.
Repeated attempts to move above the neutral level have failed so far. Price rebounds often triggered selling as investors used those moments to reduce exposure. Such behavior is common during corrective phases. Market participants tend to exit positions quickly when confidence is weak.
Still, the gradual move toward the neutral level suggests that loss-driven selling may be slowing. Smaller realized losses indicate that market conditions are becoming more balanced.
Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Point to Ongoing Accumulation
Over the past two years, Bitcoin withdrawals from centralized exchanges have consistently exceeded deposits. Persistent net outflows suggest many investors prefer moving coins into private storage.
Image Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, strong inflows to exchanges appear near major market tops. Investors often transfer coins to exchanges before selling.
Current conditions show the opposite pattern, as outflows continued even during recent price weakness. Such behavior suggests longer-term participants may still be accumulating or holding Bitcoin.
Bitcoin futures open interest expanded rapidly during the rally toward six-figure prices. At its peak, total open interest reached roughly $45–47 billion.
Image Source: CryptoQuant
High leverage levels often increase the risk of sharp liquidation events. Since the correction began, open interest has fallen to around $21–22 billion. That drop reflects a major reduction in speculative leverage.
During the rally toward six-figure prices, realized profit surged several times above $10–12 billion. Investors were actively taking gains during that phase. Since the correction, realized profit activity has declined noticeably.
