Sideways Market:
Bitcoin has been trading sideways in the past week or two. In the 1H BTCUSD chart you can see a market that has the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages moving a sideways, all clustered together with price whipping up and them all 3 of them. The RSI does not show any directional momentum. Within this sideways market, bitcoin is starting this week on a bearish note.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1H chart 9/16
(click to enlarge)
Turning Bearish with a Breakout:
Bitcoin was heading into the week in a mini consolidation range between roughly 480 and 474. Then during the 9/15 session, price started falling. After a few staggered steps we are seeing price starting to respect the moving averages as resistance. The latest move was a push almost to 465 then a pullback which is so far staying under the SMAs. There is no bearish momentum yet, but price action suggests bitcoin is turning bearish at least in the near-term. The 1H chart shows price poised to fall towards the 456.30, September low.
The 4H bitcoin chart shows a market that is maintaining its prevailing bearish conditions.
– The moving averages are still in bearish alignment and are sloping down.
– Price is staying under the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs in the 4H chart.
– The RSI has held below 60 for the most part, showing maintenance of the bearish momentum.
Price is not only poised to test that 456.30. There is downside risk toward the August low at 442. Below that the trend would continue with a minor support at 420, and ultimately downside risk toward the 2014-low at 340.
Bitcoin 4H chart 9/16
(click to enlarge)
Bullish Scenario: At this point a break above 478 can shift bitcoin away from this bearish outlook and put pressure towards the 492 level, which was last week’s highand where the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart resides. Otherwise, the bearish mode remains in play.