Bitcoin ends October 2025 down 3.35%, breaking a seven-year “Uptober” streak as traders eye November trends.
Bitcoin has closed October with a negative monthly return, marking the first red October in seven years.
Known for its historically strong performance during this period, the cryptocurrency faced a decline of over 3% as of the final trading day of the month. This downturn has caused a shift in sentiment among traders, who are now watching November closely for signs of recovery or further decline.
Bitcoin Ends “Uptober” Streak with October Decline
From 2019 to 2024, Bitcoin recorded consistent gains each October, reinforcing the nickname “Uptober” among market watchers. The streak has now come to an end, as October 2025 saw Bitcoin fall by 3.35%.
Market data from CoinGlass shows that October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with losses recorded only in 2014 and 2018. Traders had hoped that this trend would continue, especially after recent rallies in Q4 over the past few years.
Bitcoin ends Q4 2025 with a 3.35% loss. Source: CoinGlass
The drop was triggered by multiple factors, including macroeconomic developments and geopolitical uncertainty.
A mid-month flash crash occurred after tensions resurfaced between the United States and China over tariffs. This was followed by a 25 basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which did little to support the market.
Traders React to Red October and Volatility
Traders expressed mixed reactions to October’s performance. Analyst Jelle posted on X that a strong closing candle was needed to avoid a red October. However, the day ended in the red, confirming the end of the bullish streak.
Grey box once again getting defended – but choppy conditions clearly aren't over yet.
Last day of the month – we need a strong green candle today or we'll see our first red October close in 7 years.
Taking the fam to the zoo today – see you guys around.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/QJgql2rO1N
— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) October 31, 2025
Crypto Damus noted that October’s volatility was “nothing normal,” describing the trading environment as difficult even for experienced investors. Market sentiment weakened as momentum faded and trading volumes dropped across major exchanges.
Another analyst, Crypto Rover, pointed to 2018 as the last time Bitcoin ended October in the red. He noted that in November 2018, Bitcoin dropped over 36%, raising concerns among some traders about the possibility of similar price action ahead.
November Outlook Remains Divided Among Analysts
While some analysts believe that a weak October could lead to a stronger November, others say there is no strong correlation. Timothy Peterson stated that historically, Bitcoin’s performance after a red October averages an 11% return over three months. For stronger Octobers, the average return is closer to 21%.
What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin?
Basically nothing. There's no correlation between October and subsequent months.
However, growth is slowed. The 3-month return for Bitcoin after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for strong Octobers, it's 21%. pic.twitter.com/lHIXh3oL0d
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 30, 2025
Data from CoinGlass shows that November is usually Bitcoin’s best-performing month, with an average return of 46% since 2013. The fourth quarter has also been strong overall, delivering average gains of 78% during this period.
Bitcoin’s historical performance in Q4 gives traders reason to remain cautious but watchful. As October closes in the red, the focus now shifts to how Bitcoin will perform in November and December amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
