Bitcoin could reach $644,000 if it captures half of gold’s market value, according to VanEck analysts. Here’s how.
The recent rise in gold prices has put a fresh spotlight on Bitcoin. Analysts at investment firm VanEck believe Bitcoin could climb to $644,000 if it captures half of gold’s market cap.
The prediction came after gold’s jump to over $4,000 per ounce, and according to VanEck, if Bitcoin were to claim half of that market, the price would reach $644K per coin.
Bitcoin $644K Prediction Tied to Generational Preferences
Younger investors seem to be driving the transition from traditional hedges like gold to Bitcoin.
According to Sigel, consumers in emerging markets are increasingly attracted to Bitcoin as a way to preserve wealth. They see it as more portable and borderless, with a fixed supply that offers protection against inflation and currency devaluation.
We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving. Roughly half of gold’s value reflects its use as a store of value rather than industrial or jewelry demand, and surveys show younger consumers in emerging markets increasingly prefer Bitcoin…
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) October 7, 2025
While gold has been historically relevant as a haven asset, newer generations are more comfortable with blockchain-based alternatives. Analysts say this generational change is affecting the future of asset allocation and painting BTC as a legitimate store of value.
The spread of regulated Bitcoin ETFs has also contributed to this trend.
These products make Bitcoin more accessible to institutions and individuals alike. Billions of dollars have flowed into the US market in particular, and this is giving Bitcoin stronger legitimacy in investor portfolios.
VanEck Sees Bitcoin as a Future Global Reserve Asset
VanEck’s outlook for the long-term goes beyond short-term price targets. The firm predicts that by 2050, BTC could settle 10% of global trade and make up 2.5% of central bank reserves.
Achieving this would solidify Bitcoin’s position as a reserve asset and could push its price as high as $2.9 million per coin.
The company believes that technical advances like Layer-2 scaling solutions will help Bitcoin handle higher transaction volumes at lower costs. These solutions could also allow smart contracts and faster payments, and could add as much as $7.6 trillion in value to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Analysts argue that trust in traditional reserves like fiat currencies and gold is eroding in some regions. This environment creates opportunities for Bitcoin to step in as an alternative.
Gold’s Surge Boosts Bitcoin Outlook
Gold’s rally to a new high of $4,000 per ounce has created debate over its role as the primary safe-haven asset. Traders have flocked to gold amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that gold may rise even higher before facing any correction.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, hit a new peak of over $126,000. This means that is has made a 95% gain over the past year.
The rise is attributed to limited supply on exchanges and rising institutional interest. Critics like gold advocate Peter Schiff argue that Bitcoin is about 15% below its gold-adjusted all-time high.
Generational Shift in Store-of-Value Assets
The competition between gold and BTC shows this generational divide now, more than ever. Older investors often stick with gold because of its centuries-long history as a hedge against inflation and crises.
In contrast, younger investors who grew up in a digital world favour Bitcoin because of its scarcity and more.
I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss stocks, bitcoin, and gold hitting new all-time highs, along with the implications of AI and why everyone is underestimating what is happening.
Enjoy!
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 – Into
1:17 – Why asset prices are hitting all-time highs
3:45 – AI… pic.twitter.com/0Vu9xxJlWk— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) June 29, 2025
Analyst Jordi Visser believes that this divide will widen further as the years go by.
