Bitcoin ends October down 3.7% as ETF outflows hit $679M and volatility indicators signal a major price move ahead.
Bitcoin ended October with a monthly decline of 3.7%, its worst “Uptober” performance since 2018.
The price struggled under sustained selling pressure from both US-based exchanges and spot Bitcoin ETFs, as data pointed to weakened institutional demand. Despite a supportive interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, Bitcoin failed to rally, leaving traders and analysts cautious about short-term movements.
Institutional Outflows Trigger Price Weakness
Data from Farside Investors showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $488 million on Thursday and $191 million on Friday. This marked a trend of capital leaving traditional financial products linked to Bitcoin. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, stated this showed a “rising sell pressure from TradFi investors.”
Institutional demand had been seen as a key driver for Bitcoin’s earlier rally, especially following the launch of ETFs. However, this trend appears to have reversed. The recent outflows raise questions about the level of long-term confidence among large-scale investors.
These withdrawals have come during a broader pullback in BTC’s price. The cryptocurrency briefly recovered from Friday’s session but remains below key resistance levels. Analysts believe these levels need to be broken to resume upward momentum.
Volatility Expected as Traders Monitor Price Range
Bitcoin’s price is now trading in a defined range, with traders watching for a breakout above $116,000 or below $107,000. Crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted, “A true move can only come once BTC decisively crosses the upper or lower boundary.” This range has created a waiting period in the market.
$BTC Held $107K again and moved back to the mid range. It's just up one day, down the other at this point.
Range is ranging. Chop is chopping.
We remain patient for $107K or $116K to break to see some momentum back into this market and for the range to end. https://t.co/c7zhiRd92f pic.twitter.com/u8PpwzaDLn
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 31, 2025
The narrowing of Bollinger Bands, a technical volatility indicator, suggests that a large move could be nearing. Analyst Matthew Hyland said on X, “Monthly Bollinger Bands have reached the most extreme levels in Bitcoin’s entire history.” These levels typically precede sharp price movements.
John Bollinger, the indicator’s creator, recently noted that it might soon be “time to pay attention.” The market appears to be in a holding pattern, but volatility indicators signal a potential breakout or breakdown could happen soon.
Sentiment Remains Cautious Despite Rate Cut
The US Federal Reserve delivered an expected interest rate cut, which many had hoped would boost crypto markets. However, this move failed to trigger a rally in Bitcoin. Glassnode said the market “shrugged off a macro tailwind” and turned cautious instead.
Investor sentiment remains uncertain. Ted Pillows, a crypto entrepreneur, described the current Bitcoin market as “time-based capitulation.” He warned that a weekly close below $100,000 would confirm a downtrend.
$BTC time-based capitulation is happening now.
But for this, Bitcoin needs to consolidate above $100,000.
A weekly close below this level will confirm the downtrend. pic.twitter.com/HJ22tfQzYQ
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 31, 2025
As November begins, historical data shows the month is often strong for Bitcoin, with an average gain of over 42% since 2013. But current price action suggests that traders are hesitant and watching closely for signs of direction before making moves.
