The BTC-to-Gold ratio has hit a record low after a 14-month decline, with analysts noting RSI levels matching past market bottoms.
A new review of the Bitcoin-to-Gold valuation ratio suggests that the current market may be far deeper into a downturn than the dollar-based chart implies.
Analysts tracking this metric say the ratio has fallen to its lowest point on record, raising questions about whether Bitcoin has already completed a full bear cycle relative to gold.
Bitcoin Peaked Against Gold Long Before Its USD Peak
Recent data shows that Bitcoin reached its peak against gold in December 2024.
This occurred almost one year before Bitcoin set its all-time-high in U.S. dollar terms in October 2025.
Analysts say this difference shows that Bitcoin has been in a downward trend relative to gold for about 14 months.
The valuation pattern mirrors earlier cycles. Previous BTC-to-Gold bear markets lasted around 14 months each.
Examples include the periods from November 2013 to January 2015, December 2017 to February 2019, and April 2021 to June 2022.
The current duration matches these timelines, which has drawn more attention to the chart.
The best chart in the ecosystem.
The valuation of $BTC vs. Gold.
It's not about the valuation of $BTC vs. the Dollar, we all know that this is going to up over the years.
It's about #Bitcoin vs. Gold given that these two are hard assets.
The current valuation is the lowest… pic.twitter.com/Pqxeo9cSz5
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 21, 2026
Researchers say the current ratio suggests a long phase of underperformance relative to gold.
They also note that the chart signals a different picture than the one seen on U.S. dollar charts, which still show Bitcoin near historical highs.
Technical Indicators Show Extreme Conditions
According to a post on X by Michaël van de Poppe, the weekly RSI on the BTC-to-Gold ratio has reached its lowest level on record.
Analysts say the indicator now aligns with the technical conditions seen at previous market bottoms, and each past instance of similar RSI readings was followed by extended periods of recovery and growth.
The RSI data suggests that the Bitcoin-to-Gold relationship may have reached extreme levels.
Analysts say such conditions are rare and often mark the end of a cycle. The current reading has caught attention because it sits at a point where past cycles reversed.
Chart reviewers say that the long decline relative to gold may reflect shifts in the broader macro environment.
During 2025, gold and silver rose sharply. This rise may have influenced Bitcoin’s dollar-based chart and created an impression of strength that did not reflect the real-asset comparison.
Related Reading: Gold Leads, Bitcoin Follows: Why This RSI Signal Matters Right Now
Analysts Reconsider the Market Phase
The evaluation of the BTC-to-Gold ratio has led some analysts to reconsider the current market phase.
According to chart reviews, the October 2025 dollar-denominated all-time-high may have been driven by moves in traditional safe-haven assets rather than a fresh Bitcoin advance.
By comparing Bitcoin to gold instead of the dollar, analysts say that the crypto asset has been in a declining trend for more than a year.
They say the chart shows that the current stage may be the final part of a longer downturn.
BTC-to-Gold bottoms often mark the beginning of multi-year uptrends. They continue to monitor the ratio for confirmation of a possible long-term shift.
As analysts evaluate the data, they say the chart suggests that the BTC-to-Gold valuation may be moving toward a new phase.
