Key Insights
- Solana recently saw a brief rally to $161 after news of the first Solana-based ETF with staking capabilities.
- Massive SOL token unlocks worth around $585 million are expected over the next two months.
- Technical indicators like Solana’s descending channel show a possible pullback could be incoming.
Solana’s native cryptocurrency recently experienced a brief rally after climbing to $161. This happened soon after the news of the first Solana-based ETF with staking capabilities.
While the announcement brought a wave of enthusiasm from traders and retail investors, many analysts believe that the price surge might be short-lived.The question now is, can Solana take advantage of this momentum, or is the rally already running out of steam?
ETF Announcement Sends SOL Higher
The excitement started when REX Shares partnered up with Osprey Funds and announced that they would launch a Solana-based ETF on Wednesday. The interesting aspect of this ETF is that it includes staking capabilities and uses a C-corporation structure.
This means that it is able to bypass the traditional SEC approval process required for spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Coming Wednesday: The First-Ever Staked Crypto ETF in the U.S.!
Introducing the REX-Osprey™ SOL + Staking ETF, designed to track the performance of Solana while generating yield through on-chain staking.
✔️ SOL exposure
✔️ Staking rewardsA new era of yield-generating… pic.twitter.com/YwJaqdmnHp
— REX Shares (@REXShares) June 30, 2025
Put simply, this ETF structure means that the REX Shares product can launch faster despite the tax inefficiencies it comes with. This development was met with a positive market reaction with SOL jumping 7% on the day of the announcement and briefly touching $161 before settling at around $157.
Soon after this, though, investor sentiment quickly cooled.
Unlocking Events and DApp Sell-Offs Add Pressure
More issues with this price movement are the incoming Solana unlocks slated for July. According to data from crypto commentators, around $585 million worth of SOL will be unlocked over the next two months.
This is the SOL unlock schedule
February is the biggest one yet, then March triples February's unlock with $2.5B of cheaply purchased SOL finally available to sell
This is while influencers who switch conviction plays daily call for $1000 as every SOL meme relentless bleeds out pic.twitter.com/ToJkT5MErk
— Artchick (eth/acc) 🔥👠 (@digitalartchick) January 24, 2025
This influx of newly available tokens increases the likelihood of selling pressure, especially if market sentiment turns negative.
More on this pressure is the behavior of Solana-based Dapps lately. For instance, Pump.fun reportedly sold more than $404 million worth of SOL so far in 2025 alone.
As a result, despite the positive ETF news, SOL has not yet outpaced its competitors like ETH and BNB over the last month. This shows that investors are aware of the shaky fundamentals and are approaching with caution.
Solana Technical Indicators Show a Bearish Bias
From a technical standpoint, Solana is currently in a fragile position according to the charts and technical analysts.
On the daily chart, SOL is currently trading within a descending channel formation, which is typically a bearish formation. While the recent price surge pushed SOL to the top of the channel, it has yet to break through resistance.
In addition, Solana is trading below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is another sign of weak short-term support.
The story is similar on the 4-hour chart. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is dipping into negative territory, and a bearish crossover is forming between the 26 EMA and the 12 EMA.
Overall, if these patterns hold, SOL could fail to maintain the $150 level and may pull back toward $138.75 or even lower towards the $125.99 as a worst-case scenario.
Solana Rising Wedge Formation Adds to Caution
A rising wedge is forming on the 4-hour timeframe, which is another signal of an incoming bearish reversal.
As it stands, this puts a lot more bearish pressure on SOL and if this wedge resolves to the downside, it could confirm that the recent rally was simply a relief bounce.
Overall, while the odds seem stacked against a rally, a path to $200 is not entirely off the table. For that to happen, Solana needs to see stronger ETF inflows, a rise in network activity, and a general crypto market recovery across Bitcoin and the rest of the market.
For now, Solana remains caught in the tug of war between bullish hope and bearish fundamentals.
