Coinbase’s David Duong warns Bitcoin’s recovery faces hurdles as Fed policy and oil prices remain key risks despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire gave markets a brief moment to breathe.
Oil prices tumbled from near $117 into the low $90s. Bitcoin crossed $72,000. Stocks and risk assets rallied broadly.
But according to Coinbase’s Head of Institutional Research, David Duong, the relief may be short-lived.
Related reading:
Trump, Iran, and BTC: Why This Rare Ceasefire Moved Bitcoin Price Up
Ceasefire Brings Relief, But Bitcoin’s Risks Are Not Gone
Duong described the ceasefire as “a genuinely constructive development” that cuts immediate tail risk from an energy shock. However, he noted that core disputes between the parties remain unresolved.
Shipping firms still want stronger security assurances before fully resuming Hormuz operations. Physical oil markets remain stressed, and supply-chain effects could linger even if diplomacy holds.
Duong’s take is that markets received a relief valve, not a full reset. That distinction matters for crypto investors. Bitcoin’s trajectory remains tied to how oil behaves in the weeks ahead.
A ceasefire headline alone does not resolve the Fed’s difficult position.
The Fed’s double bind. On Tuesday night, the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still conditional on a workable ceasefire framework and peace talks expected to begin on Friday. Markets responded immediately: oil plunged from… pic.twitter.com/Nkn7z2Wh6q
— David Duong🛡️ (@DavidDuong) April 10, 2026
Strong Jobs Data Keeps the Fed Stuck in the Middle
March nonfarm payrolls came in at 178,000, nearly triple the 65,000 economists expected.
On the surface, that looks like a resilient labor market. Duong pointed out, though, that the internals tell a different story.
Labor-force participation stayed low at 61.9%.
Wage growth slowed to 3.5% year-over-year. Payroll revisions have consistently shown that headline prints look stronger before adjustments.
So while the ceasefire reduced extreme oil risk, the Fed still sits in uncomfortable territory. Growth is softer than the headline suggests, but not weak enough to justify rate cuts, especially with war-related inflation risks only partly gone.
Duong argued that oil’s next move is the critical bridge between ceasefire headlines and Fed policy. How oil behaves at key price levels will signal how markets are pricing the conflict’s duration.
Read also:
Oil Price Levels Are the Key Signal for Crypto Markets
Duong shared a straightforward framework for reading market sentiment through oil.
In late March, oil repeatedly failed to break above $100, suggesting sellers viewed that level as too expensive.
Once buyers absorbed that resistance and oil held above $100, Duong warned that a retest of $119 became a real possibility. The ceasefire interrupted that process, with futures rejecting sharply from $117.
Still, crude oil sits in the $90s resting on support, not back at pre-war levels.
Duong outlined two scenarios that matter most for risk assets. If oil falls and holds below $84, the inflation impulse should keep fading and odds of a quicker resolution rise.
If oil climbs back above $100 and holds there, markets will likely start pricing in a prolonged conflict, which would weigh on Bitcoin and broader risk assets.
