Bitcoin may trade sideways this November as Bitfinex and Morgan Stanley analysts cite macro uncertainty but stay long-term bullish.
Bitcoin may not deliver the strong November gains traders have come to expect.
According to analysts from Bitfinex, mixed signals from the Federal Reserve and weaker rate cut expectations mean that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could move sideways this month.
How Dire Is The Situation?
They explained that the macro environment is changing, but not enough to drive strong volatility.
“The current macro backdrop supports consolidation as a stabilizing phase before volatility expands again,” the analysts said.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted at uncertainty over another rate cut in December. Markets are now eyeing a 67.9% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, down from nearly 90% earlier in the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Lower interest rates usually support Bitcoin as investors leave safer assets like bonds for higher returns. However, the market’s growing doubts about further cuts could dampen risk appetite across crypto assets.
At press time, Bitcoin trades near $103,000 and is down almost 3% over the past day and about 11% in the last 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin analysts see waning confidence among bulls
Bitfinex analysts said that Bitcoin bulls are starting to lose patience after failing to reclaim the $116,000 level. Long-term holders have been selling into rallies, which means that there is weaker conviction among early investors.
“Unless the price recovers decisively above this range, time becomes a growing headwind for bulls,” they wrote.
The cautious outlook comes after a sharp drop in early October when Bitcoin crashed from new highs of $125,100 and wiped out about $19 billion in leveraged positions.
Since then, the coin has struggled to regain upward strength.
Still, several market watchers are not ready to call the month a loss. Historical data from CoinGlass shows that November has been Bitcoin’s strongest month since 2013 and averages gains of around 41.78%.
As promised, here is my 11 minute Bull Case For Bitcoin at todays price:
TLDR – Fundamentals are strong, Context is VERY constructive relative to previous "cycles" and we are at the BOTTOM, not the top of the range, relative to other financial assets. pic.twitter.com/pizZ8oOmoy
— Dave W (@daveweisberger1) November 11, 2025
Crypto trader Dave Weisberger said the current setup looks similar to early stages of previous bull runs.
“Fundamentals are strong. Context is constructive relative to past cycles and we are near the bottom of the range compared to other assets,” he said.
Others, like Carl Runefelt and AshCrypto, also expect a recovery before month-end and are arguing that Bitcoin often bounces back after short consolidations.
Morgan Stanley says Bitcoin has entered the “fall season”
A separate analysis from Morgan Stanley shows that Bitcoin’s cycle has entered its “fall” phase, which typically comes before a downturn. In a podcast episode titled Crypto Goes Mainstream, strategist Denny Galindo compared the crypto market to seasonal shifts.
“We are in the fall season right now,” he said. “Fall is the time for harvest. It’s when you take your gains. The debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”
The comparison shows how some Wall Street strategists now view Bitcoin’s behavior through traditional market frameworks. Historical data shows a pattern of three years of price growth followed by one year of decline.
Galindo’s view implies that while Bitcoin may hold steady, investors should start preparing for a slower phase ahead.
Bitcoin dip creates talk of a Technical Bear Market
Bitcoin’s decline below $99,000 on Nov. 5 added fuel to bearish speculation. According to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, this drop placed Bitcoin below its 365-day moving average, a level many traders use to define the market trend.
Meanwhile, market-maker Wintermute noted that liquidity growth across crypto has slowed.
The company said inflows from stablecoins, ETFs and digital asset treasuries have all reached a plateau. These components have been the main drivers of crypto liquidity this year and their slowdown indicates that there are limited short-term catalysts.
