- Ethereum daily active addresses hit an all time high even as ETH price dropped over 50% from its recent cycle peak.
- CryptoQuant says ETH could fall to $1,500 by late Q3 or early Q4 2026 if the bear market continues.
- Rising ETH exchange inflows signal stronger selling pressure compared with Bitcoin in recent months.
CryptoQuant has warned that Ethereum may face further price pressure even as activity on the network reaches record levels. The analytics firm says ETH could fall to around $1,500 by late Q3 or early Q4 of 2026 if the current bear market continues. The forecast comes at a time when Ethereum is seeing strong user engagement and rising smart contract activity, creating what researchers describe as an “adoption paradox.”
Ethereum network activity reaches record levels
Recent onchain data shows that Ethereum usage has continued to expand across several metrics. CryptoQuant reported that daily active addresses on the network reached an all-time high last month. The figure exceeded levels recorded during the 2021 bull market.
The rise in users comes as decentralized finance platforms, stablecoins, and Layer 2 networks expand across the ecosystem. These services rely on Ethereum infrastructure and drive regular transaction activity. The increase suggests that the network remains widely used despite market volatility.
Smart contract activity has also grown at a rapid pace. Internal contract calls reached record levels in the same period. These calls occur when smart contracts execute automated actions inside decentralized applications.
CryptoQuant said the growing activity reflects ongoing development in the Ethereum ecosystem. However, this growth has not translated into stronger price performance for ETH.
Price performance diverges from adoption trends
Ethereum’s price behavior has moved in the opposite direction of its network growth. ETH has fallen more than 50% from its recent cycle peak despite the increase in user activity.
In earlier market cycles, higher network activity often coincided with rising prices. The current market shows a different pattern. CryptoQuant said the historical link between smart contract activity and price has weakened.
CryptoQuant reports that Ethereum (ETH) prices are projected to decline to approximately $1,500 by late Q3 or early Q4 2026 if the bear market persists. The report identifies an "adoption paradox," citing a severe disconnect between network adoption and price performance. Despite…
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) March 13, 2026
“The historical relationship between smart contract activity and ETH price has deteriorated,” the firm said in its report. It added that earlier cycles showed a clearer connection between transfer counts and price growth.
This shift has led analysts to describe the situation as an adoption paradox. The network continues to grow in use, yet the asset price remains under pressure.
Exchange inflows signal continued selling pressure
CryptoQuant analysts say exchange inflows offer a clearer signal for Ethereum’s price direction. These inflows represent the movement of assets to trading platforms where selling often occurs.
Data from the firm shows a higher ratio of ETH moving into exchanges compared with bitcoin. This pattern suggests stronger selling pressure for Ethereum relative to the leading cryptocurrency.
“The elevated ratio of ETH exchange inflows relative to bitcoin suggests stronger relative selling pressure on ETH,” CryptoQuant said. According to the firm, this dynamic helps explain why Ethereum has underperformed bitcoin in recent months.
Increased exchange activity can signal that investors are preparing to sell their holdings. As a result, inflows may weigh on price movements during uncertain market conditions.
Weak investment demand adds pressure on ETH
Another indicator points to declining capital entering the Ethereum network. CryptoQuant examined Ethereum’s realized capitalization, which measures the total value of coins based on their last transaction price.
The one-year change in this metric has recently turned negative. This shift indicates that capital is leaving the asset rather than entering it.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, said ETH could drop further if the broader market does not recover. Moreno told The Block that the price could fall to around $1,500 if bearish conditions persist.
CryptoQuant says ETH could fall to $1,500 amid Ethereum's 'adoption paradox' https://t.co/13jiwWbgEy
— The Block (@TheBlockCo) March 12, 2026
He said this level could appear by the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. The projection depends on market conditions and investor sentiment during the coming months.
For now, Ethereum continues to show strong network usage. Yet market data suggests that price performance may remain under pressure if capital outflows continue.
