- Ethereum struggles at $3,200-$3,400 resistance with weak volume, showing corrective, not impulsive rallies
- ETH-Russell 2000 correlation drops to 0.3 from 0.7 peaks, marking rare decoupling of risk assets today
- Historical data shows 65% of similar divergences close within six months through mean reversion trades
Ethereum faces mounting pressure as technical indicators flash warning signs. Analyst CyrilXBT highlighted the asset’s persistent weakness compared to Bitcoin.
The flagship altcoin has struggled to break above key resistance levels. Each rally attempt appears corrective rather than impulsive, according to the analyst’s chart breakdown.
Ethereum Fails to Reclaim Critical Resistance Zone
ETH continues facing rejection in the $3,200 to $3,400 range. Sellers consistently step in at this supply area, preventing meaningful upward momentum.
The pattern reflects deeper structural issues. Ethereum remains trapped in a downtrend from October-November highs.
Price action shows lower highs and sideways consolidation. Overlapping candles dominate recent advances instead of clean breakouts.
CyrilXBT noted this behavior signals weak buyer conviction. Volume fails to expand during upward moves, reinforcing the corrective nature of bounces.
ETH looks weaker to me than BTC, and that matters.
Every bounce has been corrective, not impulsive.
It keeps getting rejected at the same zone, and now it’s sitting right back into higher timeframe demand.
That’s not panic but it’s not leadership either.
When ETH wants… https://t.co/mguwvgFtQL pic.twitter.com/zfvCr8VEdm
— CyrilXBT (@cyrilXBT) January 25, 2026
Higher Timeframe Demand Holds, But Leadership Absent
Ethereum now trades within a demand zone between $2,700 and $2,900. This area previously triggered bounces, suggesting buyers still defend the range.
However, reactions remain muted rather than aggressive. The analyst emphasized this creates a peculiar situation, no panic selling but no leadership either.
When Ethereum leads the market, it typically breaks resistance decisively. Current hesitation indicates the asset isn’t ready to spearhead broader altcoin momentum.
Historical patterns confirm altcoin rallies generally follow ETH strength. Limited capital rotation into higher-risk assets reflects this dynamic.
Russell 2000 Divergence Reaches Multi-Year Extremes
Trader Ted posted about an unusual development in traditional markets. The divergence between Ethereum and the Russell 2000 Index hit levels unseen in years.
Charts show ETH outperforming the small-cap index since mid-2025. Ethereum traded at $2,952, up 0.12%, while Russell sat at $2,660, down 2.21%.
I have never seen this much divergence in the $ETH and Russell 2000 Index for years.
Maybe a catch-up trade could happen in 2026. pic.twitter.com/K8SIrIyJRd
— Ted (@TedPillows) January 25, 2026
This marks a rare decoupling between typically correlated risk assets. The ETH-Russell correlation dropped below 0.3 in January 2026 from 0.7 peaks in 2021.
Crypto-specific narratives drive this separation. ETF inflows outpace small-cap recovery, creating distinct performance trajectories.
Ted suggested a catch-up trade could materialize in 2026. Historical backtests from 2017-2025 support this speculation.
Data reveals 65% of similar gaps closed within six months through mean reversion. A Russell rally later this year could narrow the spread.
Key Levels Determine Next Major Move
Critical support sits at $2,700 to $2,900 for Ethereum. Loss of this zone risks continuation toward $2,400, extending the downtrend.
Resistance remains firmly established at $3,200 to $3,400. ETH must reclaim this area with strong volume to signal leadership potential.
Bullish confirmation requires a decisive impulsive break above resistance. Higher highs and higher lows would validate renewed strength.
Bearish continuation becomes likely if demand fails. A breakdown below the current range would trigger further downside pressure.
The current structure favors caution over aggressive altcoin exposure. Until Ethereum demonstrates strength, broad alt momentum remains unlikely.
Traders watch for volume expansion and impulsive price action. These elements would mark a genuine shift from defensive to assertive behavior.
