Experts debate if Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over, with some saying institutional adoption now drives the market’s direction.
For over a decade, Bitcoin investors have watched the market follow a familiar pattern tied to the halving event. Every four years, the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half.
This has historically triggered supply shocks and started major bull runs the following year.
However, that narrative is now being questioned. Several voices in the crypto industry are now arguing that the cycle may be fading as institutional players take the lead in shaping Bitcoin’s price.
Why Some Say the Bitcoin Cycle Is Over
According to Pierre Rochard, the CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, the cycle is losing relevance.
Besides, according to a recent update on X, he says it is “more likely than not” that the four-year pattern has ended. According to him, halvings no longer have much effect on the trading supply because 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined.
Instead, the majority of coins entering the market now come from long-term holders, often called “OGs,” selling their assets. Demand, he explains, is driven by a combination of retail investors, exchange-traded products being added to wealth platforms, and corporations adding Bitcoin to their treasuries.
It seems more likely than not that the 4 year cycles are over. Halvings are immaterial to trading float, 95% of the BTC have been mined, supply comes from buying out OGs, demand is the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.
— Pierre Rochard (@BitcoinPierre) August 11, 2025
Jason Williams, author and crypto investor, is in support of this view. He pointed to the fact that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies collectively hold almost one million BTC.
“This is why the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over,” he said, pointing out the rising dominance of large, well-capitalised entities in the market.
Institutional Adoption Changes the Game
Institutional interest has expanded over the last few years. BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise and other financial giants have either launched or supported Bitcoin-focused investment products.
These vehicles make it easier for investors to gain exposure without having to directly hold the asset.
Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes this wave of adoption is reshaping the market. He argues that while halving events once played a major role, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory clarity, and ETF growth are now more important.
Hougan sees the future as one of “sustained steady boom” rather than the extreme peaks and crashes seen in previous cycles. He expects positive returns in 2026, but without the wild swings that defined past post-halving years.
The Case for the Bitcoin Cycle Staying Alive
Not everyone agrees that the cycle is gone. According to crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB, the ETFs strengthen the four-year pattern by linking Bitcoin more closely with traditional financial cycles.
He also pointed out that halvings are hard-coded into Bitcoin’s software and cannot be removed. As such, the predictable reduction in new supply is still a factor that will influence prices, even if other forces are now coming into play.
Admittedly, there is a lot going on with this chart.
But if you look carefully at it, you'll see that #Bitcoin prints the same pattern each post-halving year.
Up in July-Aug
Down in Sep
Up into the market cycle top in Q4
Bear Market pic.twitter.com/k2VmXW0vJx— Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) August 11, 2025
Benjamin Cowen, another well-followed crypto analyst, highlights seasonal tendencies that still appear to follow the historical cycle. He notes that in previous post-halving years, Bitcoin often rises in July and August. Moreover, it dips in September, and then climbs toward a peak in the fourth quarter before entering a bear market.
If this year follows this pattern, it would suggest that the cycle still has some predictive value
