JPMorgan warns crypto markets may surge in H2 2026 if the US Clarity Act passes midyear, ending enforcement-driven regulation and opening institutional floodgates. 158 chars
JPMorgan is putting a number on hope. The bank said crypto markets may get a meaningful lift in the second half of 2026, but only if US lawmakers get their act together by midyear. Sentiment is still sour. That hasn’t changed.
The bank’s research note, cited in a Bloomberg report, points directly to the Clarity Act. If passed, JPMorgan says it would reshape market structure by giving regulatory clarity, ending what the bank called “regulation by enforcement,” and pulling in greater institutional money. The bill has cleared the House but is moving slowly in the Senate.
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Senate Gridlock Is the Real Bottleneck Right Now
Disagreements are piling up. Lawmakers are pushing to fix what they see as gaps left by the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law signed by President Trump in July that set the first federal framework for stablecoin issuers. One fight in particular keeps stalling talks.
The sticking point is stablecoin yield. Banks argue that letting platforms like Coinbase pay users rewards on stablecoin holdings pulls deposits away and risks financial stability. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong pulled his support for the draft legislation in January. Since then, crypto firms, trade groups, and banks have held multiple White House meetings trying to find a compromise. Armstrong said last week there is “a path forward.”
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Tokenization, Institutions, and What JPMorgan Actually Said
The bank’s note, shared by Bloomberg on X, says the Clarity Act would do three things if it passes: provide regulatory clarity, promote tokenization of real-world assets, and bring in more institutional participation. Those three words matter to Wall Street. Tokenization in particular has been a growing pitch to pension funds and asset managers sitting on the sidelines.
Institutional caution is already visible in the data. Institutional investors reduced Bitcoin ETF exposure by 25,000 BTC in Q4, a sign that larger players are not rushing back in. A regulatory green light could change that calculus fast.
Bitcoin ran above $126,000 last October on Trump administration optimism. Then came the selloff. Digital assets took a beating going into the year’s end. Any rebound from here, JPMorgan implies, needs legislative fuel, not just market momentum.
Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Sees a Messy, Slow Bottom
Bitwise Asset Management chief investment officer Matt Hougan offered a different read on where things stand. “Crypto winters don’t end in excitement; they end in apathy,” Hougan said. He added that Bitcoin is in the process of bottoming, but that the process will be messy. Lower lows are possible.
That’s not pessimism. Its texture. The one-day surges are not the signal. The slow grind back is.
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What the Second Half of 2026 Needs to Deliver
The regulatory picture is not simple. The GENIUS Act was passed, but left gaps. The Clarity Act cleared the House but faces Senate resistance. And all of it is playing out against a backdrop of ongoing scrutiny over crypto exchange activity, compliance disputes, and a still-cautious institutional base.
JPMorgan’s bet, in effect, is that clarity beats excitement. If Congress moves and the bill lands before midyear, the second half could look very different from the first. If the Senate keeps stalling, that window narrows fast.
