Kalshi listed over two dozen contracts in the days leading up to the US presidential election.
Betting market Kalshi has listed more political events contracts in the lead-up to the November 5 Presidential election to attract more users to its offering. The platform previously complained to the United States Court of Appeals about the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) bringing unfair enforcement action that prevented it from listing such contracts.
The newly listed contracts include the outcome of a referendum in Ohio, the last state the Associated Press (AP) will call the results for, and more. The listings were revealed via filings with the CFTC—Kalshi has added over two dozen contracts since October 31.
The platform’s contracts, called binary derivative contracts, will award all the rewards to winners making the right calls. They are the first in the US to let users bet on election contracts, including Kalshi’s flagship “Presidential Election Winner 2024” contract. That listing has raised over $144 million as of November 1 since its October 7 launch.
Through October, Trump had the higher odds of winning the election by over 60%. However, that gap is narrowing as election day arrives. Trump, still in the lead, holds a 55% chance of winning, whereas Harris holds a 45% chance on November 2.
Late last month, Kalshi also began accepting USD Coin (USDC) for deposits to tend to crypto-native users who prefer using such platforms strictly with crypto.
While Kalshi has witnessed tremendous engagement since the marquee contract went live, Polymarket, a decentralized predictions market on Ethereum, has been clocking massive numbers. The platform’s contract surrounding the presidential election results has accumulated nearly $3 billion in bets. One French national alone has about $30 million deposited for a Trump victory.
Robinhood Joins the Mix
It looks like Kalshi and Polymarket are not the only platforms capitalizing on the elections. Numerous more have launched over the past month, with a big-name platform also entering the market. Trading platform Robinhood also launched contracts on the outcome of the election. The platform allows users to buy up to 5,000 contracts and will pay $5,000 to them if they pick the winning side after buying the maximum allowed contracts.
Election-related prediction markets have been a hotly debated topic this election season, with regulators like the CFTC declaring they can ruin the integrity of the democratic election process. On the other hand, analysts believe these contracts to be the best way to predict events because users have skin in the game, unlike polls.
