Analyst Willy Woo Says Next Crypto Bear Market May Stem From Global Recession, Not Bitcoin Halving or Money Supply Changes.
The next crypto bear market might come from a place the industry has never experienced before.
According to analyst Willy Woo, the next downturn could be triggered by a business cycle recession similar to those that shook the global economy in 2001 and 2008.
Woo believes that past bear markets followed predictable patterns based on Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and the M2 money supply controlled by central banks. But this time, he said the driver could be a full economic slowdown.
Business cycle recessions and their effect on crypto markets
Woo explained that the last time business cycles turned down this way was before Bitcoin even existed.
“If we get a business cycle downturn like 2001 or 2008, it will test how BTC trades,” he said. “Will it drop like tech stocks or will it act more like gold?”
We had two 4y cycles superimposed
Now it's only one; global M2 liquidity
Next bear IMO will be defined by another cycle people forget about → the business cycle
The last biz cycle downturns that really took hold was 2008 and 2001, from before crypto markets were invented pic.twitter.com/inHqQH7zWx
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) October 20, 2025
A business cycle recession occurs when the economy slows down across major sectors. GDP falls, unemployment rises, spending declines, and overall liquidity tightens. These phases follow periods of economic growth and often mark the start of financial stress across markets.
Woo pointed out that crypto markets are not isolated from these larger forces. When money becomes tight, traders and institutions tend to pull back. Liquidity fades, and that can hit crypto hard.
The dot-com bubble of 2001 offers one example. The US stock market fell about 50% over two years after a surge of overvalued tech companies collapsed. Unemployment climbed as businesses cut costs and investors fled risky assets.
The 2008 financial crisis was even more severe. The S&P 500 plunged 56% as banks failed and credit markets froze.
Unemployment spiked while global GDP shrank. Bitcoin didn’t exist yet, so the world never saw how it would perform in that kind of economic shock.
Woo believes that if a similar downturn happens now, the outcome could tell us a lot about how crypto behaves compared to traditional assets.
Current economic outlook and warning signs
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tracks four indicators to identify recessions: employment, personal income, industrial production and retail sales. So far, none currently point to a full-blown recession.
A short economic dip occurred in early 2020 during pandemic lockdowns, but it lasted only a few months.
Today, growth is fragile but steady. However, there are warning signs. Trade tariffs introduced in recent years have already slowed US growth during the first half of the year. Economists expect these policies to continue dragging down GDP into the first half of the next year.
Woo noted that Bitcoin often acts as a forward-looking indicator.
“Markets are speculative,” he said. “Either BTC is saying the top is in, or BTC is about to catch up.”
How Would This Affect The Next Crypto Bear Market?
Crypto investors have grown used to cycles that revolve around the Bitcoin halving. These events have historically marked the start of bullish phases, followed by gradual declines as the cycle matures.
However, a business cycle-driven bear market would be different. Instead of being tied to crypto’s internal supply mechanics, it would depend on liquidity and investor sentiment.
