Raoul Pal says global liquidity trends and easing financial conditions could push Bitcoin higher in the next two weeks.
Bitcoin may be closer to a recovery than most investors think.
Macro analyst Raoul Pal made a bold case for crypto in a recent social media post. He pointed to several converging factors that he believes support a price rebound.
The next two weeks, he says, are critical.
Global Liquidity Remains Bitcoin’s Strongest Driver
Pal highlighted global liquidity as the single most important macro factor for Bitcoin.
He noted a 90% correlation between global liquidity and Bitcoin since 2012. The Nasdaq shows an even stronger 97% correlation over the same period. Global liquidity is currently growing at around 10% annually with no signs of slowing.
Pal also referenced GMI financial conditions, which lead global liquidity by six months. Those conditions are still easing. US total liquidity had taken a hit due to a government shutdown but has since turned around.
He noted it leads crypto by three months and started recovering three months ago.
Multiple Catalysts Are Aligning for Crypto
Beyond liquidity, Pal pointed to several other tailwinds building at once. The business cycle is accelerating, which typically boosts earnings and risk appetite.
The eSLR rule change gives banks more room to expand credit and absorb Treasury issuance. Tax refunds add further fuel by increasing bank balance sheet capacity.
China is also expanding its balance sheet aggressively. More US rate cuts are expected, which should boost disposable income and risk-taking behavior.
On the regulatory side, the CLARITY Act is moving forward and could open the door to banks and asset managers entering crypto in a major way.
Stablecoin issuance grew 50% last year and continues to accelerate, with transaction volumes now running into the trillions.
Pal also pointed to AI agents as an entirely new and fast-growing market for crypto. He described them as a new total addressable market that could hyper-accelerate adoption.
Related Reading – Bitcoin Isn’t Broken, Liquidity Is: Raoul Pal Explains
Technical Signals and Market Sentiment Support a Reversal
Pal did not rely solely on macro arguments. He pointed to weekly DeMark indicators, which he said should give a solid base within two weeks.
These are now officially available on TradingView. Daily DeMark signals are stacking up as well. Any further weakness from current levels could complete both the daily and weekly signals, pointing to a full trend reversal.
He also noted that crypto market sentiment is deeply negative. By most measures, he said, the market is the most oversold it has ever been.
The gap between fear and the underlying macro setup is, in his view, unusually wide. The only real risk he flagged is a prolonged spike in oil prices.
Pal closed with a simple conclusion. He believes the situation resolves positively. Higher.
