Many Bitcoin enthusiasts are looking forward to seeing Segregated Witness being activated on the network. Doing so will require specific requirements to be met, however. The signalling for SegWit activation will commence once the first mining difficult adjustment occurs after November 15th. But that is only the first step of what needs to happen before SegWit fully activates.
The Long Road Ahead For SegWit Activation
If there is one topic that has dominated Bitcoin discussions the past year, it is the lingering block size controversy. It is evident Bitcoin needs to scale, and bigger blocks have become an absolute necessity. However, addressing this problem seems to be much more difficult than originally anticipated.
Segregated Witness is the solution proposed by the Bitcoin Core developers. After many months of coding efforts, signalling for SegWit activation will commence in roughly one week from now. Once the next Bitcoin mining difficulty retarget takes place after November 15th, signalling can begin. But that is only the first step of the activation process.
It will take 95% network consensus before Segregated Witness will fully activate on the Bitcoin network. That number seems impossible to achieve, considering there is competition from Bitcoin Unlimited. It is possible the threshold will be lowered as more time progresses, but for now, 95% remains the activation target.
To achieve this threshold, 95% of 2016 blocks between difficulty retargets will need to be mined through the SegWit-enabled mining pools. Every time the retarget occurs, the “vote count” will be reset to zero. In the end, it is highly unlikely SegWit will activate after the first difficulty retarget.
Although a lot of people are for Segregated Witness, it only takes one large mining pool to disrupt the activation process. ViaBTC, a Chinese mining pool representing over 5% of the network hashrate, supports Bitcoin Unlimited mining. If their hashrate keeps up, they can single-handedly ensure SegWit will not activate on the Bitcoin network anytime soon.
The coming months may very well determine the future of Bitcoin as a viable global means of exchanging value. Despite eight years of success so far, the time has come to take things to the next level. Scalability is an issue that has been discussed far too many times, and the time for a solution and path forward is now.
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