Litecoin (LTCUSD) 1H Chart 3/20; click to enlarge)
Litecoin was falling sharply in the first half of this week after breaking below a consolidation that was around the 2.00 psychological handle. After the breakout, the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages started to slope down and are now in bearish alignment. The RSI dipped to 10, showing strong bearish momentum, at least in the near-term.
During the 3/19 session, litecoin found strong buyers at the 1.60 level. We saw a tail from 1.70 down to 1.60, that sprung an intra-session bullish correction to about the 1.83 area. Now, as price pushes towards 1.85, and as the 1H RSI approaches 60, we should anticipate a bearish continuation attempt back to at least 1.70 if not to chew up the tail back down to 1.60.
Now, let’s say the bullish correction continues into the 3/20 session. We should limit the bullish outlook to 1.97-2.0 area. If price does reach this area, and the 1H RSI shows overbought condition (above 70, especially if there is also a bearish divergence), then we should again look for a bearish attempt. This would be the “last line of defense” before litecoin would show us that is actually in a bullish mode.
Litecoin (LTCUSD) 4H Chart 3/20
(click to enlarge)
The 4H chart shows that a break above 2.0 would indeed put ltcusd back above the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. Also, if the 4H RSI climbs back above 60, this week’s bearish momentum would be killed. The outlook would first be towards 2.07-2.10, and the the 2.44 high before exposing the 2015-high around 2.75.
A break below 1.60 however, would continue this week’s bearish mode with pressure back to the 1.10 low on the year.
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