Trump’s death rumors generated over $1.6M in bets on Polymarket and Kalshi, as analysts question the ethics of betting over a sensitive matter like death.
Rumours around US President Donald Trump’s health created massive activity in online prediction markets over the weekend.
The rumours were based on reports that the US president had died after his absence from public appearances during Labour Day. Despite Trump later confirming that he was alive and well, traders rushed to bet on whether he would leave office this year.
How the Markets Responded
Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the largest prediction platforms, opened markets tied to Trump’s departure this week. When combined, they saw more than $1.6 million in bets within days.
the betting platforms can't open markets on Trump's death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a "Trump out as President" market on Saturday pic.twitter.com/fnpFlBoUNe
— Molly White (@molly0xFFF) September 2, 2025
Kalshi launched its “Trump out” contract on Saturday and quickly attracted over $700,000 in volume. Polymarket followed with its own market the next day, which drew in more than $500,000.
While Kalshi clarified that its market would not pay out in the event of Trump’s death, Polymarket’s terms included resignation, removal, or death as valid conditions. This difference has created worries about the ethics of such wagers, especially considering the sensitivity of the topic.
At their peak, traders assigned just a 9–13 per cent chance that Trump would leave office early. Even so, the speculation was enough.
Health Rumours Spread Across Social Media
The rumours gained traction after photos of Trump showed a bruised hand. The White House explained the marks as a result of chronic venous insufficiency.
For context, this is a condition linked to the president’s frequent handshakes and aspirin use. Despite the medical clarification, the images fueled the online chatter even more.
Trump’s brief absence from the public eye over the holiday weekend was also another source of fuel. He later posted a golf photo with Jon Gruden on Truth Social, with some accusing him of recycling old images.
🚨 Donald Trump On His Fake Death News:
"I skipped press conferences for TWO DAYS and they said 'something must be wrong with him'!" 😅😂 #trumpdead
pic.twitter.com/B4rqWF5ntf— Siddharth (@Siddharth_00001) September 2, 2025
Saturday of last week, Trump was seen at his Virginia club. However, by Sunday, he wrote online, “NEVER FELT BETTER IN MY LIFE.” His vice president, JD Vance, dismissed the speculation days earlier, even though his comments about being “ready to step” in only added to the rumours.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket With Different Rules, Same Risks
Even though both companies listed similar contracts, the details differed. Kalshi stated that it would not resolve the market based on Trump’s death alone. Instead, payouts would depend on resignation or removal.
Polymarket, however, included death as one of the conditions for settlement. This made its offering a lot more controversial, since it tied payouts directly to death.
The episode comes as prediction markets have come under more heat from regulators.
For example, Polymarket is technically banned from operating in the United States, even though enforcement is currently inconsistent. Kalshi has ties to Brian Quintenz, who is a former regulator who could soon lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This raises issues about how these markets will be regulated in the future. If markets linked to death rumours are permitted, others with sensitivity could rise and create a slippery slope for prediction markets and the people who use them.
