President Trump dropped a Sunday bombshell on Truth Social: every American (except the rich) gets $2,000 from tariff money. Bitcoin immediately jumped 1.75% to $103,000, while Ethereum surged 3.32% to $3,487. But the catch is that the Supreme Court looks ready to torpedo the whole thing.
The timing couldn’t be worse for Trump, though. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket now give Trump just a 30% chance of winning his Supreme Court tariff case, down from nearly 50% before Wednesday’s hearing.
Even conservative justices sounded skeptical – Chief Justice John Roberts pointed out the obvious: “The vehicle is imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been a core power of Congress.”
The Math Doesn’t Add Up – But Markets Don’t Care
The U.S. has collected $214.9 billion in tariff revenue so far in 2025 – and Trump claims he’ll distribute $2,000 to roughly 150 million Americans. Quick math: that’s $300 billion needed. Tax expert Erica York notes the government has only raised $120 billion in new tariff revenue so far – nowhere near enough to cover the payments.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to soften expectations Sunday, suggesting the “dividend” might just mean existing tax cuts. “It could be just the tax decreases we’re seeing – no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security,” Bessent told ABC. Translation: you might not get an actual check.
But crypto traders don’t seem to care about the details, though. Anthony Pompliano summed up market sentiment perfectly: “Stocks and Bitcoin only know to go higher in response to stimulus.” His take reflects what every crypto investor learned during the COVID-19 pandemic: stimulus checks equal higher Bitcoin prices.
And when traditional assets start moving unpredictably, many investors turn their attention to alternative markets where value and entertainment overlap. Seasoned crypto traders are increasingly exploring the best payout online casinos during market volatility. Such platforms have massive bonuses, instant withdrawals, and thousands of games where you can actually win some real money – especially good when regular markets face some kind of uncertainty from the ongoing government shutdown. So, many see them as a hedge against the tariff chaos while waiting for clearer regulatory signals.
Crypto Investors Should Watch Wednesday’s Court Decision
Bitcoin advocate Simon Dixon warns that without putting the dividend into assets, it’ll be “inflated away or just service some interest on debt.” He’s got a point. The Kobeissi Letter estimates 85% of U.S. adults would qualify for payments, potentially injecting $400 billion into circulation – and that’s huge liquidity looking for a home.
History suggests crypto benefits either way. When Trump threatened 100% China tariffs earlier this year, crypto markets saw $18.28 billion in liquidations – yet Bitcoin bounced back each time. Goldman Sachs economists predict that even if the Supreme Court kills the tariffs, Trump will “use other authorities to impose substantially similar tariffs.” More volatility, more trading opportunities.
The real question isn’t whether you’ll get $2,000 – it’s whether Trump can legally send it. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the government might have to refund more than $100 billion to importers. But that would kill any dividend plan instantly.
For now, crypto markets are betting on stimulus over Supreme Court concerns. Bitcoin’s Sunday rally shows traders prioritizing potential liquidity injection over legal uncertainties. Smart money knows one thing: whether through direct checks, tax cuts, or market chaos, Trump’s tariff drama will keep crypto volatile, and potentially profitable, through year’s end.
