- Markets expect a 92% chance the Fed will hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- Bitcoin fell after 7 of 8 Fed meetings in 2025 despite some rate cuts.
- Oil above $100 and tariffs raise inflation risks ahead of the Fed’s new projections.
Bitcoin is trading at $71,834 as investors await signals from the Federal Reserve’s March 17–18 policy meeting. Markets expect interest rates to remain at 3.50%–3.75%.
Traders are focused on the Fed’s projections, including economic forecasts, inflation estimates, and the dot plot. Analysts say Powell’s remarks and the dot plot may guide the next move for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Dot Plot Update Becomes the Main Market Focus
The dot plot provides a snapshot of rate expectations among Federal Reserve officials. Investors use it to estimate future policy changes. A shift in the median projection can change market sentiment quickly. Current projections point to one rate cut during the year. Some major banks disagree about that path.
The Fed meets Tuesday with a 98.1% chance of doing absolutely nothing.
And that's exactly why this is the most important meeting of the year.
Here's what Wall Street is actually fighting about behind the scenes.
This isn't a normal FOMC meeting. It's a quarterly projection… pic.twitter.com/knmvDgy89L
— Jesus Martinez (@JesusMartinez) March 15, 2026
JPMorgan expects no cuts in 2026, while Morgan Stanley expects two cuts during the year. Goldman Sachs recently moved its forecast to cuts in September and December. Macquarie has warned that a rate increase is still possible if inflation rises again.
BlackRock has said the Fed could deliver one or two cuts depending on economic data. Markets are now assigning a lower probability to a near term easing move. Data from CME FedWatch shows about a 22% chance of a June rate cut. Earlier expectations pointed to several cuts during the year.
Inflation Pressures Add New Uncertainty
Inflation data has added pressure ahead of the meeting. Core PCE inflation rose by 0.4% in January. The annual rate reached 3.1%, according to data reported by CNBC. The inflation reading came before recent geopolitical tensions. Oil prices have climbed above $100 per barrel after threats around the Strait of Hormuz.
Any disruption to global supply can push energy prices higher. The United States also introduced a 15% tariff on global imports in February. Economists say tariffs and energy costs can raise consumer prices.
The Fed may address these pressures in its updated projections. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the rate decision. Traders will watch his language about inflation and economic growth. His comments often guide market expectations after the meeting.
Bitcoin History Shows Sell The News Pattern
Bitcoin has often dropped after Federal Reserve meetings. In 2025, the asset declined after seven of eight FOMC announcements. The trend happened even when the central bank reduced interest rates. A similar move occurred after the January 2026 meeting. The Fed held rates steady as expected. Bitcoin still dropped about 7% within two days of the announcement.
Analysts describe the pattern as a sell the news reaction. Traders often position before major events. After the announcement, many closed positions and took profits. Technical data also shows Bitcoin testing liquidity zones near $73,000. The price met selling pressure before buyers stepped in. Such moves are common during consolidation phases.
Market participants now watch three possible outcomes. A hawkish outlook with no cuts could push Bitcoin toward $65,000. A neutral path with one projected cut may keep the price between $68,000 and $74,000. A more dovish shift with two projected cuts could support a move above $75,000. For now, investors are waiting for the Fed’s projections and Powell’s guidance.
