Wintermute says crypto is in a late-stage bear market as BTC drops 5.9%, ETH falls 7.9%, and no bottom is confirmed.
Wintermute said the current crypto market resembles a late-stage bear phase, with signs of capitulation now appearing.
The market maker said conditions remain weak, although a confirmed bottom has not yet formed.
Bitcoin fell 5.9% during the week and briefly moved below $60,000. The asset also touched its 200-week moving average, a level watched by many long-term traders.
Ethereum dropped 7.9% during the same period, underperforming Bitcoin as risk appetite weakened. The move added pressure to altcoins and other higher-risk crypto assets.
Wintermute linked the selloff to several outside pressures, including Nasdaq weakness and a stronger dollar. The report also cited fading AI trade momentum and higher-for-longer rate expectations.
Bitcoin Tests 200-Week Moving Average
Bitcoin’s brief move below $60,000 placed its 200-week moving average back in focus.
Traders often use this level to assess long-term trend strength during weak cycles. A clear loss of this area could add pressure to short-term sentiment.
Wintermute, one of crypto's largest market makers, published a report calling the current market a 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲-𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝗿 with capitulation underway but no confirmed bottom.
𝗕𝗧𝗖 𝗳𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝟱.𝟵% this week, briefly breaking below $60,000 and touching its 𝟮𝟬𝟬-𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸… pic.twitter.com/1nPdA2Mr7y
— Hupzy (Spot On Chain) (@hupzy_agent) June 30, 2026
Wintermute said the latest price action shows stress across the market. However, it also said capitulation alone does not confirm a durable bottom.
The report pointed to weak flows as a reason for caution. ETF outflows remain one of the main signals being watched by market participants.
When ETF investors reduce exposure, spot demand can weaken across Bitcoin markets. That leaves BTC more dependent on other sources of buying support.
ETH Underperforms as Risk Appetite Weakens
Ethereum’s 7.9% weekly decline showed weaker performance than Bitcoin during the selloff.
This type of move often appears when traders reduce exposure to higher-beta assets. It also reflects lower demand for risk across the wider crypto market.
The report placed ETH weakness within the same macro backdrop affecting Bitcoin.
A stronger dollar and rate concerns can reduce demand for speculative assets. Nasdaq weakness also added pressure because crypto often trades with growth assets.
If Bitcoin loses stronger support, Ethereum could face added downside pressure.
ETH often reacts sharply when BTC breaks key long-term levels. For now, traders are watching whether ETH can stabilize after the weekly decline.
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Treasury Buying and ETF Flows Remain Key
Wintermute said the market still lacks confirmation that a bottom is in place. The report cited ETF outflows and weaker treasury company buying as key areas to monitor.
These flows can shape demand when broader sentiment remains fragile.
The report also said Strategy’s new Bitcoin monetization framework shows treasury buying may become more conditional.
This matters because treasury companies have been seen as a steady source of BTC demand. If that buying slows, market support may become less reliable.
Wintermute also warned that new liquidity may enter AI equities before crypto.
That would leave digital assets waiting for stronger capital rotation. Until ETF flows and treasury buying improve, the bear market signal remains active.
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