Bitcoin is once again trading above $9,000 at the time of writing, proving its resilience and suggesting that perhaps its latest drop below that level was something of a fluke, and yet there are some analysts out there that are rejecting the notion of short-term gains and saying only hodlers should buy bitcoin right now.
Maybe We Shouldn’t Buy At This Time
Hodling is the process of holding bitcoin or any cryptocurrency no matter what. Whether the price goes up or the price goes down, it doesn’t really matter. You’re in this for the long haul. You’re interested about seeing what happens with BTC in five, ten, maybe even 20 years, and nobody’s going to take that opportunity away from you.
Some analysts suggest that a rally isn’t likely to happen immediately. The halving – which was completed about 48 hours ago – has led some to believe that bitcoin could ultimately wind up ending the year at $20,000 like it did in 2017, but for other industry experts, it will be a while before bitcoin really starts to shatter any records.
Garrick Hileman – head of research at Blockchain.com – explains in an interview:
It is a different world in 2020 than it was during the last two halvings. The derivatives market is much larger and more important. One way I would say the market has changed is that historically, the trading market was more lopsided toward upward transactions because there were not as many ways to speculate on the price going down, for example, the ability to borrow and sell short. That’s something that now exits through futures and options, so all these products have created a more level playing field for people who want to bet on the price going down.
Some analysts are confident that at the end of the day, its bitcoin futures that ultimately decide where bitcoin’s price will lie. One such person is Diego Gutierrez Zaldivar, CEO of IOV Labs. He states that the introduction of bitcoin futures allowed institutional players to bet against BTC and ultimately influence spot market behavior, as they did at the end of 2017.
Futures Have Very Strong Influence
While the reduction in bitcoin’s renewed supply due to the halving introduces the possibility of a sharp rise in BTC price, it is possible that smart institutional money will push prices down in the short-term, as it did when CME and CBOE introduced their futures in December of 2017… When you dig into the options data, it looks like the market is placing a premium on contracts that are below the current prices. The options market seems to be suggesting that there is more concern over prices moving downwards.
For the most part, the lead up to this halving appears to have had more influence than the event itself, as the leadup saw bitcoin reaching $10K for the first time in three months.