bitcoin 1h 03112015
(Bitcoin, BTCUSD, 1H Chart 3/11: click to enlarge)

Bitcoin has been bullish since last week, the beginning of March. It has rallied from about 245 to 296 today (3/11). In the 1H chart, we can see that the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages are sloping up and in bullish alignment (50 above 100 above 200). Meanwhile price has been holding above these SMAs this week.

As we get started with the 3/11 global session, we saw that the 3/10 session was a bit choppy. It began bullish, but started to get into an expanded consolidation and now the volatility has died down. This price action is forming a  “diamond pattern”, which can be assessed as a price top. Since this “price top” is found in the 1H chart, we should expect the bearish implication to be intra-session, or near-term. So far however, we are seeing support around 288. In fact, none of the 1H candles closed below 288 during the 3/10 session.

A close (in the 1H chart) below 288 should indicate some bearish correction. There is a support/resistance pivot around 284, and another key level around 280. We should probably expect some support around 280, with upside risk towards the 300-310 resistance made in January. Above that, the next target would be the 2015-high around 321.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart 3/11
bitcoin 4h chart 3/11
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart doesn’t really show the diamond pattern anymore, but it does show the RSI coming down from the oversold area (above 70), which suggests it is entering into a period of short-term consolidation. We can also see that the 280-284 area involves some key pivots, as well as a couple of rising speedlines.

Before Bitcoin reaches 300, we should probably anticipate further buying of dips. Even around 300, we should look to limit the bearish outlook to the 280-284 area. Look for support here especially if the 4H RSI is back around 50, where the RSI rebounded from during the late-February, early-March rally.

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