Bitcoin started this week falling from last week’s highs around 250 down to almost 232 before consolidating sideways as we can see in the 1H chart below from tradingview.com.
Throughout the week, the 1H chart has been showing a slight bearish bias.
1) Price has been holding under the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs. This reflects bearish bias because price is trading below its “mean” price based on price action in the past 200, 100, and 50 hours.
2) The 1H RSI has held below 60. When it tagged 20, the 1H RSI showed bearish momentum. As it holds below 60, it reflects maintenance of this bearish momentum.
We can also see price action starting to make lower highs and lower lows. In the near-term, this also shows bearish intent, putting pressure on the 232.00 low on the week. But what about the bigger picture outside of this week? Let’s take a look at the 4H chart.
In the 4H chart, we can see that this week’s ranging price action is actually in the middle of a larger price range between roughly 269 and 210. There’s no bias in this picture, but if price breaks below 230, the bias will be to the downside with 210 in sight.
A break above 250 on the other hand should expose the 270 area. What if we move another time-frame higher and look at the chart outside of this month?
In the daily chart, we can see that there is another larger price range between roughly 166 and 315. Also note that there is a bearish bias as price trades under the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs. These SMAs are in bearish alignment. The RSI has held below 60 after tagging below 30. Therefore, we should favor the bearish breakout in the shorter time-frames. A break below 210 should open up the 165-170 area with risk of breaking lower. A break above 270 however should see strong resistance again around 300-315.
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