Bitcoin has been retreating from the high around 300 in mid-March as we can see in the 4H chart. Note that this decline has brought the cryptocurrency under the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs). Last week, price consolidated, tested 270, and traders decided to continue fading btcusd. This kept price under the SMAs – a bearish slingshot signal. After the breakdown of the consolidation early last week, price again consolidated at the end of the week. Bitcoin rallied from about 235 up to about 255.
Again, traders kept btcusd under the moving averages in the 4H chart, and the RSI has tagged 30 and held below 60. The bears look to be in charge of this market, and we should expect the 235 low to be threatened this week. A break below that can open up common support pivot around 210, down to the 200 psychological level.
Looking at the 1h chart, we can see that last week, after a false bullish breakout, price stalled under 255 and under the 200-hour SMA. The RSI showed some near-term bullish momentum, but when it broke below 40, that bullish momentum was gone. Now, the RSI has tagged below 30, which shows bearish momentum accompanying the break of a mini-consolidation support at 245.
Then we saw a strong spike that eventually respected the 252 resistance.The fact bitcoin faded this pullback shows that bears are in charge in the near-term as well. With the short-term outlook in the 4H chart remaining bearish, the revival of bearish bias in the near-term suggests the market will indeed have some downside risk this coming week.
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