Triangular Consolidation: Bitcoin was bullish in the first week of March, but the rally stalled last week at around 293. It has been consolidating since, and the structure of the consolidation is now shaping up to be triangular. Essentially, volatility has dried out since BTCUSD hit 293. Price stayed above 265 for the most part, and the cryptocurrency started to make lower highs and higher lows.
The 1H chart shows the market trading around 270-278 now, oscillating above and below the 100-, and 50-hour SMAs. Meanwhile, price has remained above the 200-hour SMA, which shows that it is maintaining a slight bullish bias throughout the consolidation.
Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above 280, it will open up not only the 293 high, but the 300-310 resistance area from late January. Above, that we have the 321, high on the year in sight.
When we look at the 4H chart, we can see a bullish bias as well.
1) Price is above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs, which are in bullish alignment and sloping up.
2) The RSI has tagged above 70, and for the most part held above 40 since February. There were instances when the RSI dipped below 40, but they were brief. Still, we would have to say that the bullish momentum has been shaky. In March however, the bullish momentum seems to be strengthening as the RSI clearly held above 40.
Bearish Scenario: We see that the current low, around 270, was a previous resistance. This is indeed a key level. If price falls below 270, and the 1H RSI dips below 30, our bullish outlook in the near-term will be in trouble. There would be a short-term bearish outlook towards the 230-235 , support from mid to late February.
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