Bitcoin investors have had a disappointing year so far. Could October bring back their smiles with a bull run? A lot of factors point towards that possibility.
Failed Rallies Since January
Bitcoin price in January 2017 was around $1,000. Market observers were bullish and predicted that by December the rate could climb anywhere between $3,000-4,000. Contrary to all expectations, the cryptocurrency went on to touch its all-time high of nearly $20,000 in mid-December last year, returning unimaginable gains of 20x. A driving force in this massive bull run was the infusion of retail investors who got excited about all the hype and jumped feet first into the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Whatever goes up, must come down, however. Bitcoin has had a history of corrections to the tune of 90%. And history did repeat itself. To the disappointment of investors who entered the market at the highs, the digital currency plunged to a low of $5,800 in February 2018.
Since then, all attempts for a full recovery have been unsuccessful. Bitcoin has had failed rallies in February, March, April, May, July, and September due to insufficient volumes. Gradually, hope gave way to despair, and the retail investors lost patience and started exiting the market, booking losses.
Could October Turn Things Around?
There is a reasonable likelihood that this month could see a change in Bitcoin’s fortune, owing to multiple positive factors.
First, technical analysts and market observers believe that the digital asset has seen the bottom. The price also seems to have consolidated inside the long-term descending triangle from a technical analysis perspective.
The Securities and Exchange Commission of the U.S. has so far rejected all applications seeking approval of a Bitcoin ETF, including the one from the Winklevoss twins. However, the regulator has sought public opinion on the nine crypto products that it rejected in August. It was perhaps growing institutional interest that made the SEC reconsider the applications, and it has set October 26th as the date for the final judgment.
Second, a positive outcome by the SEC will open the doors for institutional money to flow in and be a trigger for the bulls to be back in action. Last year, it was the announcement regarding the listing of Bitcoin futures contracts by CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) and CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) that had triggered the rally.
Finally, looking at the seasonality of the market, October to December has always been a good time for Bitcoin. Bitcoin has experienced bull runs during this timeframe six times in the past.
Bitcoin price action has proven time and again that it can take an exponential path within a matter of days and weeks. Though predicting market circumstances is impossible, currently available information and indicators point towards a possible break-out towards an upside in October.
Do you think that October will see a reversal in the price action and see a successful rally for Bitcoin? Let us know in the comments below.
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