BTC.D closes at 61.01% as ETH posts a weak bounce and alts bleed. Bearish divergence is building across charts. May could hurt before it helps.
Bitcoin closed up 2.47% on Friday. Volume was decent. The fourth trip above the cloud, bouncing roughly 4% off the fast line.
The RSI structure has not changed. Lower highs, lower lows. Still there.
According to MooninPapa on X, the bounce does not change the bigger picture. Bitcoin is sitting at the top of the cloud right now. That is a waiting zone, not a breakout signal.
ETH Got Left Behind, and the Volume Confirms It
Ethereum closed up 1.69% Friday. Bitcoin posted 2.47%.
The gap is not a coincidence. Per MooninPapa’s YouTube market review, ETH volume is poor. RSI crossed back above support but landed at 49.58, a much lower high. Bearish momentum is building. The read from MooninPapa is that ETH is likely heading lower before any real recovery takes shape.
Gap ranges sit open. Ethereum between 2,260 and 2,339. Bitcoin between 76K and 79K. Solana between 82.85 and 84.95. These tend to fill.
Bitcoin dominance closed at 61.01% Friday. The target MooninPapa had been calling for weeks.
The Problem With 61% Is What Comes After
Higher highs on BTC.D price. Lower highs on RSI. That is bearish divergence. It does not mean dominance collapses today. The odds of a pullback are just rising with every push higher, as MooninPapa said on X.
Stablecoin dominance only dropped 1.69% Friday. Surprisingly little. It is holding a pattern of higher lows and higher highs on RSI, which reads as money sitting still rather than rotating into alts.
TOTAL3ESBTC dropped 2% Friday. It tracks alt health against Bitcoin. It is heading toward support last tested in June 2025. OTHERS/BTC has support roughly 5% lower near 0.1. A short bounce from those zones is possible.
Whether it holds is a different question entirely.
Outside crypto, DXY wicked lower Friday then began building a higher low. USDJPY fell from 160 down to 155 in one session. Japan’s Ministry of Finance told reporters to keep phones on through Golden Week, per MooninPapa’s review. BOJ intervention risk stays high. That means selling US bonds, buying back yen, and USDJPY going lower from here even if a short bounce comes first.
DOGE, WLFI and the Picks Nobody Is Calling Clean
Traditional finance charts are not reading clean either. April’s close already pointed toward a difficult May. ES and DJI are printing higher highs while RSI keeps making lower highs. The Dow opened Friday at 49,988.56. It closed below overhead resistance. A toppy breakout. Nvidia closed slightly lower.
DOGE moved up and tagged the top of the cloud on the weekly fast line. MooninPapa on X said that is a logical profit-taking zone. Could it push to 0.11 or even 0.13? Yes. The trend is working against it though.
WLFI dropped another 10% Friday. RSI closed at 6.35. The most oversold this chart has ever printed. Extremely bearish project. Still, MooninPapa flagged it as a setup for risk-takers only on any short bounce.
RAVE confirmed a bullish divergence cluster Friday at 9 p.m. The slow line is flat enough to give the signal some weight. First bounce target would be the fast line, roughly 117% away on the daily. NEAR lost support Thursday and Friday closed lower. The ideal next move is a retrace back up to confirm lost support as resistance before heading lower.
ZBCN dropped 10% Friday after a fourth bearish divergence cluster. RSI hit its lowest level since March 17. A bounce of around 20% is possible from here even so. That is what these deeply oversold charts do sometimes.
MooninPapa’s base case on X remains unchanged. May favors lower prices before anything more meaningful. Some charts are oversold enough for short pops. Oversold is not the same thing as bottomed.
Disclaimer: This article reflects technical analysis from the cited sources and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research.
