CryptoQuant data shows stablecoin exchange reserves still falling, raising questions about crypto’s near-term liquidity outlook.
Stablecoin buying power has not returned at scale, according to new CryptoQuant data.
The analysis, published by Novaque Research, points to a mixed liquidity picture across exchanges. Net flows have turned slightly positive, but the broader trend still looks restrictive.
Reserve levels remain far below last year’s highs. The findings suggest crypto markets may still lack a strong capital cushion for future rallies.
Exchange Net Flow Shows Small Gains
ERC-20 stablecoin inflows to exchanges have edged into positive territory.
Net flow now sits near $62.8 million, CryptoQuant reported. That figure marks a shift from recent outflow periods. Still, it pales next to the multi-billion-dollar inflow waves seen earlier this cycle. Traders are watching for signs this trickle could grow.
Minting and redemption activity has also cooled. Both now sit close to $1.5 billion at the latest reading. That balance shows no clear expansion in overall stablecoin supply.
Issuance has slowed sharply compared to the surge recorded during the first half of 2025. Analysts see this as a signal that fresh capital creation has stalled for now.
Stablecoin Dry Powder Is Not Yet Returning at Scale
“Continued reserve contraction would leave rallies more dependent on leverage and external capital flows.” – By @NovaqueResearch pic.twitter.com/bH7pPfy9Mr
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 23, 2026
Exchange Reserves Remain Well Below Peak
The more telling signal, per CryptoQuant, comes from exchange reserve balances.
ERC-20 stablecoin holdings on exchanges have dropped to roughly $61.8 billion. That is well under the late-2025 peak, which topped $75 billion. Reserves also sit beneath the declining 100-day moving average, reinforcing the downtrend.
This contraction suggests available stablecoin capital keeps shrinking despite the recent uptick in net flow. Novaque Research noted the gap between short-term inflows and longer-term reserve trends.
Fewer stablecoins sitting on exchanges typically means less dry powder ready for deployment. That dynamic matters for traders watching liquidity conditions heading into the next market move.
Read also: Solana Scores a Major Win as Ramp Rolls Out Stablecoin Accounts
What This Means for Crypto Price Action
CryptoQuant’s report stops short of predicting a firm direction for prices. The near-term outlook, based on the data, leans neutral to mildly constructive.
Continued positive net flows could offer some support if the trend holds. But a stronger signal would need exchange reserves to stabilize.
Minted supply would also need to consistently outpace redemptions for a clearer bullish case to form.
Novaque Research warned that continued reserve contraction would leave rallies more dependent on leverage and external capital flows. That reliance on leverage, rather than fresh stablecoin liquidity, could leave price gains on shakier footing.
CryptoQuant’s data will likely stay in focus as traders track whether stablecoin dry powder starts rebuilding in the weeks ahead.
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