ETH closed below bear flag support as stablecoin dominance flips bullish above the cloud. MooninPapa flags $1,065 target and crypto risk-off pressure ahead.
Ethereum closed below bear flag support on Friday. The move confirmed what the chart had been building toward since January, and it was not subtle.
According to MooninPapa on X , the measured target now sits near $1,065, roughly 48% below current price levels. A retest of the broken support as resistance is still possible before the next leg lower.
The bear flag itself was textbook in structure. MooninPapa’s YouTube analysis traced the setup from the January 14 high at $3,402 down to the February 6 low at $1,747. That impulse shape, not the percentage, not the raw measurement, was superimposed forward. Friday’s close completed the breakdown.
When the Flag Falls, Watch What Catches the Knife
The May monthly close forecast had targeted around $1,843 for Ethereum. That level is already within reach. MooninPapa, on X, noted it is roughly another 10% lower from current price and described it as “pretty easy to do” given the pace of selling.
BTC dropped hard too, flash dumping 2.67% and closing below the daily TBO cloud. That shift, per MooninPapa’s post on X, moved the reading from bearish consolidation into strong bearish mode. The Bitcoin drop into the cloud had already been flagged as the structure to watch, and support near $75K remains the next key zone traders are eyeing.
OBV’s moving average, which had been pointing sharply upward, is now flattening. The phrase MooninPapa used on X for that setup was “top of the roller coaster.”
The DXY held strong bullish throughout. Gold outperformed BTC. Silver sat in bearish consolidation. USDJPY pushed higher with no intervention from the Ministry of Finance.
Stablecoin Dominance Just Did Something It Hasn’t Done in a While
Combined stablecoin dominance closed above the cloud on Friday. That is not a minor technical event. As MooninPapa noted on X, the confirmation places the combined reading in strong bullish mode, which has historically signaled sustained risk-off pressure across the crypto space.
The next target MooninPapa cited is 13% and beyond on stablecoin dominance, a level he described as the accumulation trigger for crypto. The market is not there yet.
BTC dominance is weakening at the same time. MooninPapa flagged on X that the combination of falling BTC dominance and rising stablecoin dominance is especially damaging for the OTHERS category and altcoins broadly. OTHERS dominance also printed a TVL closed long in the early hours of Saturday morning. A lower high on RSI for OTHERS was confirmed, which he described as a clear bearish signal.
TOTALES dropped 2.71% in a single session, landing right on the next support fan line. RSI there now sits below the March 20 pivot low. MooninPapa’s view, per the X post, is a drop of at least 20% from current levels, with a precedent from January where TOTALES lost 34% in nine days.
On the watchlist side, NEAR posted a 45% three-day move but RSI hit 89.05 making it extremely overbought. LIT gave back its full breakout. HYPE printed a bearish engulfing candle on the daily. ZEC put in another TBO bearish divergence cluster. ONDO and 2Z are listed as short-watch setups. FARTCOIN stopped out in profit after flipping weaker. H dropped 13% after printing its second bearish divergence.
TAO, PENGU, CHZ, AERO, and MORPHO remain caution setups according to MooninPapa’s X post. CRO, SUI, HBAR, XCN, and ADEA lean lower unless BTC stabilizes fast.
SPX is holding up but RSI failed to push into overbought territory on the latest recovery attempt. Oil is testing short-term support. A US-Iran peace agreement, if reached, could push oil considerably lower.
The weekly RSI setup for combined stablecoin dominance, MooninPapa noted on X, mirrors the 2022 pattern. Back then, one final pierce preceded the capitulation move. That is the sequence he now expects to repeat.
