ETH whale unrealized profits turned positive after price tested the buy wall near $2,078, with analysts watching $2,250 resistance and a possible $1,600 drop.
Ethereum’s biggest holders just got some breathing room. The unrealized profit ratio for whale wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more has flipped back above zero, according to Cointelegraph on X. Historically, that shift has come before 25% gains within three months and up to 300% returns within a year, per the analyst cited in the post.
That recovery did not come without some turbulence first.
The Buy Wall Hit Hard Before the Flip
ETH fell to levels near the buy wall before bouncing, flushing out most of the high-leverage long positions in the process. As CW8900 noted on X, the move tested that demand zone aggressively. The sell wall around $2,250 still holds. Short positions are now the ones at risk of getting squeezed next, CW8900 said.
That kind of setup, a cleared long side and a looming short squeeze window, is exactly what Ethereum whale accumulation data has been pointing toward in recent weeks. Large holders kept stacking even when price dipped below their cost basis. The conviction held.
The price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $2,078 during the sell-off. That golden ratio level absorbed the bulk of the pressure, at least for now.
Two Roads From Here, Neither Is Simple
The Elliott Wave picture stays messy. In a video posted to X, More Crypto Online broke down two competing scenarios playing out in real time. The move up from February lows looked corrective. Three waves, not five. That distinction matters a lot.
If the structure plays out as a wave 4 correction, Ethereum could revisit $1,600. Maybe lower, More Crypto Online said. That scenario becomes far more likely if price fails to hold above key resistance between $2,001 and $2,083 on any bounce attempt.
The second scenario, the more optimistic white count, puts the current move inside a larger W-X-Y structure. Price could extend the correction but eventually mount a stronger recovery leg. The deciding factor, according to the analysis, is whether the next bounce unfolds in three waves or five. Three waves points to more downside. Five waves changes the picture entirely.
Either way, More Crypto Online flagged that market movements right now are tied closely to political headlines. Trump-related posts have been acting as catalysts for short-term swings on smaller timeframes, adding noise to an already fragile structure.
What History Says About the Profit Flip
The metric that drew attention from Cointelegraph on X is not a new one. Whale wallets crossing back above zero unrealized profit have historically preceded significant ETH recoveries. The 25% figure in three months is the conservative read. 300% within a year sits at the more optimistic end of that historical range.
That data lands at an interesting moment. Ethereum whales have been actively buying during recent dips, with wallets that sat dormant for months suddenly returning with large purchases. The pattern keeps repeating at levels that large holders appear to view as attractive entries.
The short positions now sitting above the current price are next in line. Whether price reaches $2,250 fast enough to trigger those liquidations depends on how the bounce structures itself from the $2,078 Fib level. Resistance does not disappear just because profit metrics flipped positive. That sell wall at $2,250 is still sitting there, waiting.
