The managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors has said that investors should hodl on to their bitcoin investments during periods of decline.
Writing in a note on Wednesday, bitcoin advocate Thomas Lee, said that people need to be patient in the wake of the cryptocurrency’s more than 40 percent decline in price this year, according to a report from Bloomberg.
Market timing is generally discouraged in traditional equity investing. If an investor missed out on the 10 best days (for S&P 500) each year, the annualized return drops to 5.4 percent (ex-10 best), from 9.2 percent. In other words, the case for buy and hold in equities is the opportunity cost of missing out on the 10 best days.
He added by saying that if an investor missed out on the 10 best days for bitcoin each year, the yearly return drops 25 percent annually. According to data from Fundstrat, on average, bitcoin was down each year, with the exclusion of the top 10 day gains. In Lee’s opinion, with a small number of days every year making up the bulk of bitcoin’s gains, holding is a sensible option.
Earlier this month, it was reported that Lee had created a new bitcoin misery index designed to let investors know when it’s the right time to buy the cryptocurrency. At the time, Lee said that when the index was below 27, bitcoin produced the best 12-month performance. At the beginning of March it was at 18.8.
Notably, Fundstrat’s Lee has also said that with rising price values within the digital currency market, it is no longer profitable to mine for bitcoin. Lee is reported as saying:
Bitcoin currently trades essentially at the break-even cost of mining a bitcoin, currently at $8,038 based on a mining model developed by our data science team.
Fundstrat looked at three things: the cost of equipment, electricity, and other overhead such as maintaining cooling facilities. At the time of publishing, the digital currency is currently trading below the $8,000 mark, at $7,564, representing a 6.32 percent decline in 24 hours.
Yet, despite the slump in market prices Lee is of the opinion that the sector will see a turnaround later this year. In February, he was reported as stating that come July all top cryptocurrencies will record new highs. With March slowly drawing to a close and four months until July, it seems hard to believe that market prices will experience the turnaround in values that so many of them need.
All the market can do is wait and see.