It’s been almost a week since bitcoin’s widely anticipated third halving, and thus far, the event has turned out to be a real bore.
The Halving Hasn’t Amounted to Much
While bitcoin isn’t necessarily in bad shape, the halving made everyone believe that something big was about to happen. That perhaps the world’s number one cryptocurrency by market cap was going to aim for the stars and get there overnight. That may have been somewhat unrealistic, but there is certainly some speculation as to why bitcoin has barely moved since. In fact, it’s almost as if the coin’s previous state of volatility has remained unchanged.
Consider this. Bitcoin spent the next few days after the halving occurred sliding downward. The currency fell from the high $9,000 range to about $9,400. It then fell to $9,200, but at press time, it’s back above the $9,700 mark all over again. In other words, a week has gone by and bitcoin has fallen here and there simply to jump back up to where it was prior. Not much of a story.
And, of course, the space is still running wild with people who seem to think things aren’t quite over yet. Many are predicting that bitcoin will either shoot north and explode by the end of the year, while others are predicting the opposite, and believe that the currency’s days are numbered. So, who is correct?
For the most part, the prior two halvings – which occurred in 2012 and 2016 respectively – have been bullish, though if one really considers the history of these events, the major bullish trends that ultimately followed the respective halvings did not arrive for some time. Look at four year ago, for example. At the time, bitcoin was trading for less than $1,000, though it was still considerably higher than where it had been during the previous few years.
Remember in early 2015 when the currency was trading for less than $200? Well, by the end of 2016, the asset appeared to be moving between $700 and $1,000, which was miles better than where it had been 1.5 years ago. Still, nobody could have been prepared for what happened in 2017. The asset rose by what appeared to be $1,000 a week, and by the time the Christmas season rolled in, the asset jumped to its all-time high of nearly $20,000 per unit. Bear in mind that this was more than a year after it’s previous halving had occurred.
Is It Still Too Early?
So, perhaps all those commenting on the lack of activity in the bitcoin space over the past week are having premature reactions. Some still think the remaining months are likely to bring positive waves to BTC. Among them are the Winklevoss Twins, who recently stated:
We’re set for another order of magnitude step up – whether $20K is the bitcoin base, maybe we see $100K.