Top Chinese Bitcoin Miner Predicts BTC Crash to $42K-$44K by Late 2026

• Jiang Zhuoer sees Bitcoin bottoming between $42K and $44K in late 2026 based on cycle analysis.
• Strategy’s mNAV dropped to 0.72, nearing levels seen before the previous Bitcoin market bottom.
• The forecast suggests mNAV may lead Bitcoin’s final bear-market low by roughly six months again.

Bitcoin could face a deeper correction before the current market cycle ends, according to Chinese mining industry veteran Jiang Zhuoer. The founder of BTC.top believes Bitcoin may reach its bear-market bottom between October and December 2026, with prices potentially falling to the $42,000-$44,000 range. His outlook is based on historical market cycles and Strategy’s declining market net asset value ratio, commonly known as mNAV.

Jiang Zhuoer Links Bitcoin Outlook to Strategy’s mNAV

Jiang Zhuoer shared his latest market forecast through a public post on X, highlighting Strategy’s mNAV as a leading indicator. The metric compares Strategy’s stock price against the Bitcoin value held per share, reflecting investor sentiment toward the company.

According to Jiang, Strategy’s mNAV recently declined to 0.72, approaching the 0.70 level recorded during the 2022 bear market. He argued that such readings often indicate pessimistic market conditions and signal that sentiment has entered a depressed phase.

The miner emphasized that a low mNAV does not automatically mean Bitcoin has reached its lowest price. Instead, he pointed to historical data showing a significant gap between the indicator’s bottom and Bitcoin’s eventual market low.

《对本轮BTC熊市 见底时间&价格 预测》
【重要长期预测贴】

MSTR的mNAV已跌到0.72了【图1，图3】，
（mNAV=股价/每股含BTC价值 比值，代表美股资金对MSTR的市场情绪，高于1为泡沫高估，低于1为悲观低估）
接近上一轮牛市2022年5月11日的最低点0.7【图2】。
根据最近STRC大幅脱锚等市场情绪事件，… https://t.co/V5s0Q2S2Wy pic.twitter.com/o9fqE9U80z

— 江卓尔_莱比特矿池 (@Jiangzhuoer2) June 24, 2026

During the previous cycle, Strategy’s mNAV reached its lowest point in May 2022 while Bitcoin traded above $31,000. However, Bitcoin continued falling for several months before hitting its cycle low near $15,500 in November 2022.

Based on that pattern, Jiang believes mNAV could again serve as an early signal for a future Bitcoin bottom.

Long-Term Model Points to Late 2026 Bottom

Jiang also based his prediction on a long-term mathematical model built around Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles. The model assumes that market volatility decreases as Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization expands over time.

Using this framework, he projected a potential bear-market low around October 31, 2026. The forecast places Bitcoin near $44,000, while his broader estimate ranges between $42,000 and $44,000.

He stated that the model has shown stronger accuracy in predicting timing than exact price levels. Therefore, the projected timeframe remains the primary focus of his analysis.

The prediction arrives as investors continue monitoring macroeconomic developments, institutional demand, and cryptocurrency market liquidity. These factors remain important drivers of Bitcoin price movements and could influence future market trends.

Jiang also disclosed that he has maintained a cautious trading approach in recent months. He noted that he reduced spot exposure and entered short positions, expecting additional downside before conditions improve.

While the forecast has attracted attention across the cryptocurrency sector, it remains one analyst’s view rather than a confirmed outcome. Market participants will continue watching Bitcoin’s performance and Strategy’s mNAV to assess whether historical patterns repeat during the current cycle.