Vetle Lunde – a senior analyst at K33 Research – stated in a recent interview that bitcoin, the world’s number one digital currency by market cap, is following the same patterns it did in 2019, and that the asset could wind up hitting $45K per unit either by the end of this month or next month.
The Same Things We Witnessed Roughly Four Years Ago Are Showing Up Again
It makes sense when he says that bitcoin is following the footsteps it left four years ago. 2019 was an interesting year in many ways given that it followed 2018 (naturally), which up to that point, was one of the worst years on record – if not the worst – for bitcoin. However, nobody could have thought anything could “outclass” it in terms of negativity the way 2022 has.
Last year was easily bitcoin’s worst period, with the asset losing well over 70 percent of its value and dropping into the mid-$16K range during the final weeks (a massive dip from the all-time high of $68,000 per unit it hit in November the previous year). The asset’s crash led the space to lose more than $2 trillion in overall valuation, especially as many other leading digital assets – such as Ethereum – chose to follow BTC’s path.
However, since the beginning of the year, the leading digital currency has experienced a few solid bumps that ultimately saw it jump into the $30K range as recently as a few weeks ago. This marked the first time the coin hit such a mark in about ten or 11 months, and now, according to Lunde, the bull run is going to surge even further given that he thinks $45K is in the asset’s immediate future.
He stated in the discussion:
Bottoms in both cycles lasted for approximately 370 days, and the peak-to-trough return after 510 days of both cycles reached 60 percent. In 2018, the bear market rally topped 556 days after the 2017 peak, on June 29, 2019, with a 34 percent drawdown from the peak. While history is far from likely to repeat in a similar fashion if the fractal were to continue, BTC would peak around May 20 at $45,000.
During 2018, bitcoin lost more than 80 percent of its value. Prior to the start of that year, it hit its then all-time high of nearly $20K per unit, though by the end of the following year, it was trading in the low and mid-$3,000 ranges, and it took roughly five months for the asset to show any further signs of life.
How Could a Rally, Which Means Prices Are Going Up, Ever Be “Hated?”
Lunde further noted:
The hated rally of 2019 ended with a significant blow-off top before BTC resumed trading at a 40-60 percent drawdown from its 2017 ATH. The early 2023 rally has all the hallmarks of a hated rally.