Bitcoin has remained relatively stable over the past few weeks, but according to Emmanuel Goh – co-founder and CEO of crypto data analytics company Skew – the currency is entering the third quarter, which means its volatility could potentially increase very soon.
Bitcoin Doesn’t Experience Good Things in Third Quarters
Goh suggests that in the past, third quarters have typically led to lowered prices for both bitcoin and its altcoin cousins. In an interview, he states of the 2020 second quarter:
“Bitcoin has had a strong Q2 once again, +41 percent as of the 29th of June, and has recently been trading in a tight range between $9,000 and $10,000.”
He did, however, comment that quarter three is typically much more “challenging” for the currency when one steps away from what this same period in 2017 brought forward. During that year, the third quarter was relatively positive for bitcoin, bringing the currency’s price higher and edging it closer to the $20,000 mark it would reach by the end of the year.
However, this is not the norm for bitcoin, and Goh comments that traders should watch out for potential price swings that might make the currency appear bearish over the next three months.
Regardless, any sudden price movements would fall in line with the wacky year that bitcoin’s been experiencing. After a few early drops that saw the currency falling into the high $6,000 range during the first few days of January, the currency ultimately shot up to the $7,000 range, and by February of 2020, the currency struck $10,000, bringing it into the five-figure range for the first time in about six months.
However, this didn’t last long as the following month of March saw the coronavirus striking the global economy hard, which ultimately brought bitcoin down to the high $3,000 range, though this massive drop was only temporary. It wasn’t long before the currency saw itself trading once again in the $5,000 and $6,000 ranges, and within two months, the currency had once again shot up to $10,000.
This, unfortunately, only lasted what felt like hours, and the currency has clearly had a love for the $9,000 range since early May. For the most part, the currency has managed to remain relatively stable over the past two months.
A Continued Trend?
Goh further stated:
Bitcoin had a record options expiry on the 26 of June with 115,000 bitcoin equivalent options expiring… In equity markets, it is not unusual to see markets trading in a tight range into large quarterly expiries and picking up a direction thereafter. We will watch at the start of July if we are seeing the same pattern emerging in cryptocurrency markets.
Goh comments that ever since the year 2014, the third quarter of each year for bitcoin has historically been something of a low period for the world’s leading digital asset by market cap.