Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 1H Chart 3/15

(click to enlarge)

Bitcoin has been bullish in March and stalled just below 300 last week. 300-310 is a key resistance from January. After being rejected from going above 300, it retreated to about 273. Let’s take a look at the technical set up.

The 1H chart shows that after falling to 273, price has crossed under the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving average (SMAs). The RSI has also broken below 40 as well as 30. These are signs that the prevailing bullish mode has been lost in the 1H chart, and there is even some nascent bearish bias and momentum.

Now, we can see a bit of consolidation between 273 and 283. A break above 285 would clear above the SMAs, and revive the bullish bias. Otherwise, if price holds under 283, or at least the cluster of moving averages, the bearish outlook would remain in play. Note that the 1H RSI has tagged 60 but remains below it, which shows maintenance of the near-term bearish momentum.

If the bearish outlook extends into the short-term (early this week), the next level to look for support will be around 260. Let’s take a step back and look at the 4H chart.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) 4H Chart 3/15
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows a slight bullish development since mid-January, when bitcoin hit the low on the year near 163. It popped, pullback, and  has been drifting higher especially in March. We can see the bearish divergence, which is old news now, but does tell us that the bulls are not completely in control of the market in the short-term.

We mentioned the 260 support. In the 4H chart we can see that if price reaches 260, it will also be testing a rising trendline. A break below 250 would likely clear this trendline as well as the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. In that scenario, there is downside risk first towards a common low around 210. Below that the 163 low on the year will be in sight.

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