LTCUSD is now moving inside a new ascending channel pattern and might be due for a test of support. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level coincides with the channel support at 42.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA so the path of least resistance is to the upside, but a downward crossover seems due and this might draw more sellers to the mix. In that case, a break below the channel support is possible and this might indicate that a reversal is underway.
Stochastic is still pointing up, though, so buyers could keep propping LTCUSD up. If so, a bounce back to the resistance around 50-51 could take place. RSI is edging down but moving mostly sideways to signal that consolidation could happen.
While bitcoin and ethereum have drawn support from the pickup in risk aversion, other cryptocurrencies like litecoin don’t seem to be as fortunate. After all, bitcoin has been rendered superior against its peers after surviving its hard fork and network upgrade. It has also benefitted from funding of Coinbase and Filecoin, along with surging investor interest in Japan.
Meanwhile, the dollar could still be on the back foot after seeing downbeat CPI readings on Friday. This weighed on Fed rate hike expectations for September and might force the dollar to retreat. After all, the US economy has been under threat from North Korea as well.
Easing geopolitical risks, however, could restore demand for the dollar. US retail sales reports are also lined up later this week and this could influence tightening expectations. Based on remarks from Fed policymakers, a good number are still not that convinced about inflation trends and might choose to hold out until December. Besides, the Fed is widely expected to begin its balance sheet runoff soon.