Grayscale says Bitcoin’s recovery may depend more on macroeconomic conditions than historical market cycles.
Bitcoin’s latest decline has renewed debate over whether the market still follows its traditional four-year cycle. While previous bear markets often reached a low about a year after a cycle peak, growing institutional participation has changed the market’s structure. Grayscale believes history still offers a useful guide, but says macroeconomic conditions may now play a bigger role than past halving cycles. As a result, investors may need to watch both historical patterns and broader financial trends before expecting the next sustained recovery.
Grayscale: Bitcoin Has Historically Bottomed One Year After Its Peak
Grayscale believes Bitcoin’s bear market could continue until September or October if previous market cycles remain a reliable guide. According to the asset manager, Bitcoin has historically reached its lowest point roughly 12 months after recording a cycle peak. Bitcoin climbed above $124,000 in October 2025 before entering its current downturn. Following the timing of earlier cycles, a comparable low would likely arrive around September or October 2026.
BTC currently trades near $65,500, leaving the asset almost 48% below its all-time high. Although prices recovered after falling below $60,000 in late June, repeated attempts to reclaim the upper-$60,000 range have failed. Grayscale stressed that its timeline is based on historical behavior rather than a price prediction. Market participants now face a broader question: whether Bitcoin still follows its familiar halving cycle or responds more to macroeconomic conditions.
Previous bear markets followed a similar pattern. Bitcoin peaked in late 2013 before reaching a low in January 2015. Another cycle topped in December 2017 and bottomed the following year. Prices also reached a record in November 2021 before finding support in November 2022.
ETF Demand Is Changing Bitcoin’s Bear Market Playbook
Applying that pattern to the October 2025 peak suggests the current decline may still have several months remaining. Additional market data also points to caution. Earlier research from Galaxy Digital found that only four of 13 historical bottom signals had appeared by June. Bitcoin remained above the network’s aggregate cost basis, while signs of widespread capitulation had yet to emerge.
Galaxy estimated that a historically comparable, though milder, cycle low could fall between $40,000 and $46,000. Grayscale did not assign a specific downside target in its latest assessment.
At the same time, growing institutional participation may undermine the reliability of previous-cycle models. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, corporate treasury purchases and regulated investment products have introduced demand that earlier bear markets never experienced.
Bitcoin Recovery Now Tied to Liquidity and ETF Demand, Grayscale Says
Bitcoin has also become more sensitive to macroeconomic developments. Interest-rate expectations, global liquidity, dollar strength and technology stock performance now influence price movements alongside digital asset fundamentals. Grayscale has previously argued that rising institutional adoption could eventually weaken the traditional four-year cycle. Its latest report maintains that possibility while noting Bitcoin’s recent price action still resembles the early stages of earlier downturns.
A stronger recovery would likely require improving ETF inflows, better liquidity conditions and a clear move above the $68,000 to $70,000 resistance zone. Losing support near $60,000 could strengthen expectations of a later, possibly deeper market bottom. For now, Grayscale views September and October as a period of higher risk rather than a fixed deadline. Faster institutional demand could shorten the downturn, but investors relying on historical cycles should remain prepared for weakness extending into the fourth quarter.
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