Bitcoin Steadies Near $81,700 After $635M ETF Outflows

Bitcoin recovered toward $81,700 on Friday after Thursday's tech-led selloff. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows hit about $635 million on Thursday, per SoSoValue, after three sessions that had pulled in more than $1 billion combined. Bitcoin was up about 0.5% since midnight UTC on that rebound. Oil near multi-month highs and next week's Federal Reserve meeting keep the stakes on rates, not only on the tape.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Flip the Flow Tape

The spot Bitcoin ETF complex flipped hard. SoSoValue's Thursday print put net withdrawals near $635 million. That cut short a three-day inflow streak of more than $1 billion. Institutional flow is back in focus as price tries to hold the mid-$81,000s.

More outflows would weigh on sentiment if equities stay soft. Fresh inflows would give the bounce a clearer bid. Either way, the flow tape is now a short-term read on demand, not a side note.

Tech Selloff Sets Up the Bounce

Thursday's drop tracked a broader retreat in U.S. equities. Technology shares led the weakness. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%, its steepest daily decline since June, which raised fresh questions about appetite for risk assets.

Asian equities were mixed on Friday as markets digested Wall Street's move. South Korea's Kospi rose 0.3%. China's CSI 300 gained 1.7%. Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped 0.25%. Bitcoin's modest rebound left traders asking whether Thursday's selling would extend into Fed week.

Brent crude near $113 a barrel adds another pressure point. Higher energy prices can keep inflation sticky and support the case for elevated borrowing costs. Traders are watching oil beside ETF prints ahead of the Fed.

Fed Week: Hold Expected, December Still Open

Attention turns to the Federal Open Market Committee's October 27-28 meeting. Market pricing puts roughly an 80% chance that officials leave the benchmark rate in the 3.75% to 4.0% range. December is less settled while inflation stays in the debate.

September's rate increase was part of the Fed's response to sticky prices. Officials have pushed back on bets for back-to-back hikes even after stronger September inflation data. The October statement and press conference will be read for clues on whether another 25-basis-point move in December stays on the table. Higher long-term yields have already offset some of the support that strong equity markets had been providing.

For Bitcoin holders, the near-term story is simple. The bounce followed a tech shock and a heavy ETF outflow day. The next test is whether Fed week brings calm, or another risk-off leg.