Ethereum trails Bitcoin for 10 months as ETH/BTC falls 35% from its 2025 peak, with traders watching $1,200 ETH risk.
Ethereum has traded lower against Bitcoin for about ten months. The ETH/BTC pair remains inside a falling channel.
The pair has formed lower highs and lower lows during this period. Therefore, traders are waiting for a clear trend break.
Ethereum has reached a former breakout area linked to the BMNR move. This level may offer local support on higher timeframes.
However, the pair has not confirmed a reversal yet. Bitcoin still holds relative strength across the wider crypto market.
ETH/BTC Remains Trapped in a Falling Channel
Ethereum has stayed under pressure against Bitcoin for most of the past ten months. The ETH/BTC chart continues to move inside a downward channel.
As a result, each recovery attempt has failed below earlier highs. The current structure shows lower highs and lower lows.
This pattern usually points to weak demand against Bitcoin. However, traders are watching for a breakout above the falling trendline.
$ETH Has been trading lower in this channel/wedge against $BTC over the past 10 months.
An easy trade in my eyes would be to wait for the ETH/BTC pair to break this down trend and then hop onto the momentum that might unfold.
Until then, it's just lower highs and lower lows. At… pic.twitter.com/N2SWYzVHvP
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 12, 2026
A move above that trendline could change short-term market direction. It may also bring momentum traders back into the pair.
Until then, the ETH/BTC setup remains weak. Ethereum has now touched a previous breakout area from the BMNR move.
That zone could provide local support if buyers defend it. Still, support does not confirm a full trend change.
Ethereum Falls Harder Than Bitcoin in Risk-Off Markets
Market data shared by traders shows Ethereum often falls more than Bitcoin. During recent bear market legs, ETH has dropped about 10 percentage points harder.
Therefore, some analysts are analysing Ethereum closely during the current weakness.
One reason is Ethereum’s stronger link to risk assets. ETH reportedly has a 0.78 correlation with Nasdaq, while BTC stands near 0.55.
This may make Ethereum more sensitive when investors reduce risk. Bitcoin also has stronger visible support from large buyers.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasuries, and public buyers have supported BTC demand. Ethereum has not seen the same level of steady support.
In addition, spot ETH ETF flows have reportedly stayed negative for much of 2026.
The ETH/BTC ratio is down 35% from its August 2025 peak. Traders also say ETH has underperformed BTC on most trading days.
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Ethereum Reaches HTF Range Lows as ETH/BTC Hits Long-Watched Target
Traders Watch $1,200 ETH Level if Weakness Extends
Some traders are using recent bear market patterns to estimate Ethereum’s downside risk.
In the first leg, Bitcoin fell 36%, while Ethereum dropped 46%. In the next leg, Bitcoin fell 38%, while Ethereum declined 48%.
If Bitcoin drops 40% in another leg, the same pattern points to a 50% ETH move.
That would place Ethereum near the $1,200 area. For that reason, traders are watching this level closely.
🚨 $ETH UPDATE
During this bear market, Ethereum tends to dump 10% harder than Bitcoin
There are several structural reasons ETH performs this way:
> ETH has 0.78 correlation to Nasdaq vs BTC's 0.55 – it's the first thing sold in risk-off
> Bitcoin has Saylor, ETFs, corporate… https://t.co/E8dBL8ICVf pic.twitter.com/hZD3vVsKl4— Pepesso (@0xPepesso) June 12, 2026
JPMorgan has also said Ethereum may need stronger adoption before a lasting reversal. Market watchers are looking for better network use and demand.
Without that, ETH may struggle to regain strength against Bitcoin. For now, the ETH/BTC downtrend remains the main chart signal.
A breakout would be needed before traders expect stronger momentum. Until then, Bitcoin continues to lead Ethereum on a relative basis.
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